“Undoubtedly”

After the UK gilt market put the ball on the tee for the BoE to swing at it and they chose not to, the 2 yr gilt yield is down another 6 bps today after plunging by 21 bps yesterday. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said he’s waiting on more jobs data with the September end of the furlough program but somehow thinking a .10% bank rate is still appropriate with expected inflation to 4%+ in coming months. This said they are most likely hiking rates in December. The British pound is testing the lowest level since December 2020 also in response and that is helping the FTSE 100. In contrast, UK inflation breakevens are rising again with the 10 yr at 4.02% as the BoE is not serious about price stability.

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said today “Inflation next year will undoubtedly slow down, but the intensity of the fall is perhaps not what we expected a few months ago.” The ECB still is conducting its emergency purchase program and the euro is just above the lowest level since July 2020 vs the US dollar. As the ECB is not serious about price stability either, the German 10 yr inflation breakeven is rebounding for a 2nd day. “Undoubtedly” will be the new “contained” if he’s wrong which I think he will be.

As the Biden administration is trying to get everyone else to pump more oil except us, AAA said that the average price of gasoline is at a fresh 7 year high.

AAA Avg Gallon of Gasoline

Germany and France reported September industrial production that was weaker than expected but we know the challenges with procuring parts and materials are the main reasons. The German Economy Ministry said “Supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products that have been going on for a long time are being reflected on a broader front.”

We also saw an in line retail sales figure for the Eurozone when the upward revision to August is included but this was pretty much included in the GDP figure we saw for Q3 last week.