Peter Boockvar

Pending home sales in October jumped 3.5% m/o/m, well more than the estimate of up 1% while September was revised down by 4 tenths. Let’s call this pent up demand after the hurricanes as there was a 7.4% jump in sales in the South after 3 months of declines. Sales in the Midwest were up by 2.8% but fell out West and were up just .5% in the Northeast. The index …

[Read more...] about Home Sales post Storms

After moderating very slightly last week, II said Bullish sentiment picked up again on the week. Bulls rose to 62.3% from 61.5%. It touched 64.4% a few weeks ago which was a 30 yr high. Bears fell to 15.1% from 15.4%. The spread of 47.2 is up from 46.1 last week. The peak this year was 50. The previous top was in 1987 at 50.5. This joins the Daily Sentiment Index …

[Read more...] about Stick it to the Man

After two mediocre treasury auctions this week, the 7 yr auction was very lame. The yield of 2.23% was a full 2 bps above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.36 was below the one year average of 2.39. Also reflecting weak demand, direct and indirect bidders took about 72% of the auction, the least since August 2016, leaving dealers with the balance. In response, …

[Read more...] about Wow, that Sucked

Home price gains y/o/y accelerated in September to 6.2%, the quickest since July 2014, according to the Case-Shiller index. This is great if one is a seller and tougher for those looking to buy. We have had a tremendous housing PRICE recovery while a housing TRANSACTION recovery has been more modest with trends still below long term averages. The 20 city seasonally …

[Read more...] about The House PRICE Recovery Continues/Confidence/Richmond/Tax Trigger

The goods deficit in October was wider than expected at $68.3b vs the estimate of $64.9b. It’s the widest since a one month plunge in March 2015 and back in 2008 before then. Exports fell 1% m/o/m at the same time imports rose by 1.5%. With the impact of the hurricanes, I can’t separate out its impact so I’ll take this data with a grain of salt. That said, Q4 GDP …

[Read more...] about After This, Expect a Trimming of Q4 GDP Estimates

The incoming Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech released last night was pretty vanilla so the only thing of interest will be his answers to the questions asked of him today starting at 9:45am est. I want him to be asked whether he thinks QE should be a permanent tool of the Fed (likely yes unfortunately). I’m sure he’ll talk about the ‘natural rate of interest’ even …

[Read more...] about Pretty Vanilla/If You Missed Bitcoin, Easy Pickings Here/Other

Following the mediocre 2 yr note auction, it was quickly followed up by a lackluster 5 yr auction as well. The yield was a touch above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.46 was about in line with the one year average of 2.47. The one positive is direct and indirect bidders took 77% of the auction vs the 12 month average of 72%. Bottom line, for this part of the …

[Read more...] about 5 yr Auction Lackluster Too

We had another very mediocre 2 yr note auction. The yield of 1.765% was a hair above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.73 was below the one year average of 2.81. Also, dealers got stuck with 41% of the auction vs the 12 month average of 37%. Bottom line, this is relevant because one would think 9 yr highs in the 2 yr yield would generate some more excitement …

[Read more...] about Another Mediocre 2 yr Note Auction. What’s Going On?

The November Dallas manufacturing index fell to 19.4 from 27.6 in October and that was 4.6 pts below the forecast. The 19.4 figure is right in line with the year to date average of 19.5. New orders and production fell. Backlogs rose 1 pt. Employment dropped by 10 pts and wages/benefits disappointingly fell by 8.3 pts. Prices paid and received were little changed …

[Read more...] about Dallas Manufacturing/Look at Labor Market Questions, Answers