The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index fell slightly m/o/m to 53.8 in January from 54.1. It’s now at the lowest level since May and has fallen in 4 of the last 5 months. Manufacturing was up a touch (helped by weaker dollar) while services was down a touch in January. Notwithstanding the moderation in the composite index, Markit said “the forward …
The Dollar
The US dollar index is getting slammed again, breaking below the 90 level for the first time since December 2014. Again, we know it's a benefit to those US multinationals that don't hedge out their FX exposure but the big negative wild card is how much more inflation do we now import, what it means for retail prices and margins and thus interest rates and Fed policy. …
2 yr auction very good
A week before the next Fed meeting where the committee should be hiking rates again but will instead wait until March, the 2 yr note auction was very good. The yield of 2.066% was about in line with the when issued but the bid to cover of 3.22 was above the one year average of 2.82 and the highest level since an auction in September 2015. Also of note, direct and …
Another mfr’g index to moderate
The Richmond manufacturing index for January is now the 3rd seen so far this month that reflected some moderation (after NY and Philly). The index fell 6 pts to 14 and that was 5 pts below the estimate. It touched 30 in November. The internals were very mixed. New orders were unchanged while backlogs rose 9 pts but after falling by 25 in the month prior. Employment …
Just not ready yet for a change
BoJ Governor Kuroda put aside speculation that an imminent change in policy was forthcoming. "Given there is still a distance to the achievement of the 2% price stability target, I don't think that we are at a stage where we consider the timing for a sol called exit or how to deal with it. The BoJ thinks its necessary to continue tenaciously with the current powerful …
What’s most important
The government shutdown is noise and nonsense. It will end very soon. Moving on. Outside of a slew of corporate earnings this week, the BoJ two meeting ending tomorrow and Thursday's ECB get together are of large importance as both are also in the midst of a change in policy. I don't expect much of anything new from the BoJ but an alteration of its yield curve …
Consumer confidence moderates
The preliminary January UoM consumer confidence index fell to 94.4 from 95.9 in December and that was below the estimate of 97. Notwithstanding all the economic enthusiasm, this is the lowest print since July and below the 2017 average of 96.8. The main reason for the m/o/m decline was the 4.6 pt drop in Current Conditions as Expectations rose .5 pt after the 4.6 pt …
Death, taxes and…
We are going to hear about the possibility of a government shutdown all day but I'll just say this: Death, taxes and if the government shuts down, it will soon reopen. We enter the day with the US 10 yr yield at that important technical level of 2.63%. Unfortunately there is no US data point today of importance to influence whether we break above or fail. It will …
Give me inflation protection!
I almost never give color on a US Treasury TIPS auction. But, today I am. The Treasury just auctioned off 10 yr TIPS and the demand was robust. The yield of .548% was well below the when issued of .575%. It saw the best bid to cover since May 2014 at 2.69. That level compares with the average seen last year of 2.33. Also of note, direct and indirect bidders took 89% …
Claims/Housing/Mfr’g
Initial jobless claims totaled 220k, well less than the estimate of 249k and down 41k w/o/w. While this is a great number, the seasonal adjustments around the holidays are not always reliable and 7 states had to estimate their claims which is unusual. Thus, I would take this figure with a grain of salt. Smoothing this out, the 4 week average was 245k vs 251k last week …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.