October payrolls grew by 261k, well below the forecast of 313k but that was completely offset by a 51k person increase to September and also, August was revised up by 39k. After a bizarre spike of 906k in September in the household survey, this month it was down by 484k and combined with the drop of 765k in the size of the labor force (after a large 575k increase in …
Claims, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs
Initial jobless claims fell to 229k from 234k last week. That is below the estimate of 235k and brings the 4 week average to 233k from 240k. Processing claims in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands is still an issue but ex this has firing’s at a very modest rate still. Continuing claims fell by 15k to a fresh 44 year low. Productivity in Q3 was a better than …
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A dovish BoE hike
We got a dovish hike from the BoE as it seems they will go really slow in raising rates further from here. They think inflation peaks right now at 3% and they expect it to “fall back over the next year.” They also harped highlighted “the decision to leave the EU is having a noticeable impact on the economic outlook.” While they acknowledge “the overshoot of …
A Bit of Everything
Assume at 8am est the BoE will finally get off its arse and hike rates by 25 bps more than one year after it cut by the same amount because they feared the end of the world after the Brexit vote. The only question is whether they plan a few more in 2018 or this is a one and done for a while. The 2 yr Gilt yield is at a crucial spot at .50%. It matches the same level …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.