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Central Banks

July 5, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

FOMC Minutes tell us nothing new

As we hear from a multitude of Fed members in the weeks after the FOMC statement and press conference that Yellen gives, by the time the minutes come around, it rarely leads to any new news and today’s minutes are along those lines. So, I’ll bottom line this in the 1st paragraph with more color below: Fed members went back and forth on the state of the economy with …

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June 15, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

The day after / BoE inches closer to rate hike

Central Banks After sticking to their guns in telling markets that we will most likely get another rate hike this year (belief in the Phillips Curve is still alive), “relatively soon” is the next question to answer as to when quantitative tightening will begin. Janet Yellen gave us that semi-guidance in the press conference and it sounds like something that happens …

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June 14, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

FOMC: What a tough spot to be in

Most noteworthy in the statement was a new discussion on the desire to implement QT this year. In the FOMC statement they said they expect “to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.” Data dependent, right? There was an addendum note on how they will conduct this. The monthly cap on …

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May 31, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Key Beige Book bullet points and labor market comments

Here are the key bullet points from the just released Beige Book from the Fed: “Most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported that their economies continued to expand at a modest or moderate pace from early April through late May.” “Consumer spending softened with many Districts noting little or no change in nonauto retail sales, while auto sales have …

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May 30, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Is a root canal less painful when you know it’s coming?

Central Banks In a continued concerted effort to make this go as smooth as possible, two Fed members are telling us to ‘Keep calm and Carry on’ about QT. James Bullard last night said “The runoff in the balance sheet will go very smoothly. It’s going to be managed, it’s going to be slow.” That latter is certainly obvious but the former is not. John Williams said …

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May 25, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Will ‘Gradual’ End Differently Than Measured?

United States The one reveal of note in yesterday’s minutes was the plan coming together with how to proceed with QT. Just as the rate hike cycle has been extraordinarily gradual, QT will be as well but the end result will still be the same, a tighter monetary policy. Greenspan did something similar in the mid 2000’s as each successive meeting when he tightened the …

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May 3, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

The Fed Wants to Hike in June

I’ll start with the bottom line. The Fed is looking past the Q1 weakness and continues to lay the groundwork for more rate hikes this year, with the next one most likely being in June. “The committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, …

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April 11, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

Yellen feels good but challenges ahead

In her speech and Q&A (including twitter) late yesterday, Janet Yellen said nothing new but seems to feel pretty comfortable with where the Fed is positioned in terms of proceeding with their exit and “allowing the economy to kind of coast and remain on an even keel.” She continued to defend the stance that “we want to be ahead of the curve and not behind it.” Our …

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April 6, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

“Like a river that don’t know where it’s flowing…”

At 2pm est yesterday the two biggest risks to the market were highlighted in their different forms. Firstly, nothing new was revealed in the minutes, especially after hearing from a slew of Fed members over the past few weeks but maybe market participants need to get slapped a few times before they pay attention. I'll say again, I have a bridge to sell you if you …

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April 5, 2017 By Peter Boockvar

And the FOMC minutes say…

As we heard from a slew of Fed members over the past few weeks including 2 of 3 troika members (Fischer and Dudley), I wasn’t expecting much new in the just released minutes and we really didn’t get it. I like to joke that some said this, several said that, many said here, a few said there. It’s apparent that the Fed is on track to hike rates two more times this year …

[Read more...] about And the FOMC minutes say…

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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