Free Access

Positives 1) The Fed validated the pricing in the bond market that rate hikes are likely coming in response to mostly the manufacturing slowdown and weakness in overseas economies. They are trying to get ahead of any more pronounced slowdown and broader spillover to the services sector which has just begun. 2) Negotiations are back on with China and it’s been …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/21

Positives 1) The Administration pulled back from its everything tariff threat on Mexico. 2) Core retail sales in May beat the estimate by one tenth with a .5% m/o/m rise but it was actually better than that as April was revised up by 4 tenths. The y/o/y gain of 3.4% compares with the 5 yr average of 3.7% and helped by online retailing and sales at restaurants …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/14

Positives 1) The May ISM services PMI surprised to the upside, rising 1.4 pts to 56.9 from April. The estimate was a slight drop to 55.4 and the print is about spot on with the year to date average of 57. The components though were more mixed. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 16 saw growth vs 15 in April, 16 in March and 18 in February. Of those seeing an increase in …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/7

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 215k, about in line with the forecast of 214k and vs 212k last week (revised up by 1k). The 4 week average is now 217k vs 221k last week as a 230k print drops out. For perspective, the 217k average is about the same as the one year average of 218k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 26k to just above the lowest …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/31

Positives 1) New home sales in April totaled 673k, about in line with the estimate of 675k and March was revised up by 31k to 723k. Smoothing out this volatile data point puts the 3 month average at 688k vs the 6 month average of 648k and the 12 month average of 628k. Months’ supply rose to 5.9 from 5.6 and the median home price jumped by 8.8% y/o/y but that was …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/24

Positives 1) Headline CPI for April rose .3% m/o/m while the core rate was higher by .1%, both were one tenth less than expected. The y/o/y core rate though due to rounding was up 2.1% as expected and up from 2% in March. The headline rate was higher by 2% y/o/y vs 1.9% last month. Services inflation of 2.8% ex energy offset the decline in core goods pricing, …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/10

Positives 1) April payrolls grew by 263k, well more than the estimate of 190k and there were upward revisions of a net 16k to the prior two months. The government added the most amount of jobs since August 2018. Looking at the private sector only saw a job gain of 236k vs the estimate of 188k. Average wage growth for non supervisory production workers held at 3.4% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/3

Positives 1) GDP in Q1 rose 3.2%, much better than the estimate of up 2.3%. The upside beat was helped by net trade (exports jumped while imports contracted sharply) and inventories which combined contributed almost 170 bps of the rise. Personal spending though, the biggest component was up just 1.2%, two tenths more than expected as an increase in spending on …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

 Positives 1) March retail sales rebounded with a core gain of 1%, 6 tenths more than expected. Smoothing out the down December, up January, down February and up March, on a dollar basis we're just above (.2%) where sales totaled in November. 2) Initial jobless claims fell to just 192k, 13k less than expected and down from 197k last week. The 4 week average is now …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/18