The two way market that has been established again over the past week resulted in a 3.5 point drop in the weekly II data for Bulls. Interestingly, no one got more bearish as Bears dropped by .1 pts to 22.6. Thus all of the Bulls went to the Correction side as it rose to 28.4 from 24.7 last week. Again, these are people who expect a correction but want to buy it. The …
[Read more...] about Buy the Dip?, BoJ, UK, Purchase Applications and more…
Today again is all about global interest rates, mostly on the long end. A lot was made about what Eric Rosengren said on Friday but rate hike odds for September still only reached 28% afterwards. The 2 yr note yield is basically where it was two Friday’s ago. We closed out the day with certain relief on the part of some that Lael Brainard killed the chance of a rate …
Positives: July saw a new record high in the amount of US job openings. They totaled 5.87mm in the month, about 240k more than expected and up from 5.64mm in June. The level of hiring’s rose to a 4 month high but are 63k below that March level when there was 200k less job openings. This again points to the supply side (or lack thereof) of the labor market …
[Read more...] about 9/9 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
I’m going to start off by repeating that I continue to believe that global interest rates have bottomed and that the post UK vote referendum was the final blow off. I say this again because more evidence continues to build of the logistical and credibility limits the BoJ and ECB (the current center’s of monetary insanity) are reaching in their QE programs. The 10 yr …
In Janet Yellen’s speech titled The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit (read full text here) she used Jackson Hole as a venue to discuss the near term outlook for the US economy and what it means for monetary policy. She said specifically on policy: “Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds …
[Read more...] about Yellen Emerges, Sees Her Shadow, 4 More Weeks
After yesterday’s improved 2 yr note auction compared with the poor one seen in June, the 5 yr auction was better as well. The yield was below the when issued, the bid to cover was above the one year average and direct and indirect bidders took 75% of the auction vs the previous 12 month average of 66%. Bottom line, the market doesn’t believe the Fed is raising …
Positives: Initial jobless claims totaled 262k, 3k less than expected and down 4k from last week. As a print of 252k comes out of the 4 week average, the new average rose to 265k, the most in 6 weeks from 263k but it’s still very low. July CPI was flat headline as expected and rose .1% core which was one tenth less than expected. On a y/o/y basis, prices were …
[Read more...] about 8/19 – A Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Positives1) Job growth in July of 255k was well above the estimate of 180k. The private sector added 217k of the jobs vs the estimate of 170k thus a key surprise was also the hiring jump within government, particularly at the local level. Government hiring has grown by 71k over the past two months vs the average of about 10k per month over the prior 12 months. The 3 …
[Read more...] about 8/5 – Succinct Summation of Week’s Events
The July ISM services index fell 1 pt to 55.5 which was a touch below the estimate of 55.9 but is still above the average year to date of 54.6. This compares with the 2015 average of 57.2. New orders rose .4 pts to the best since October at 60.3 although there was a drop in the number of companies seeing an increase to 13 from 15 surveyed in June. Backlogs rose 3.5 …
[Read more...] about ISM, ADP, Services PMI’s, Mortgage Apps
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
