Initial jobless claims totaled 192k, 8k less than expected and down from 195k last week. The 4 week average was up slightly to 191k from 190k. It was about 190k in February 2020. Continuing claims fell by 37k w/o/w to 1.654mm but off the highest since December and not far from the most since February 2022. For perspective, this was just under 1.8mm in February 2020.
So trying to square this data with what Ian Siegel from ZipRecruiter said and the best way is to focus right now on the slowing pace of hiring while the number of firing’s still remains subdued. I would not be surprised if the February payroll number, which will be seen on March 10th, has a minus sign in front of it as the January surprise mean reverts at the same time the hiring slowdown shows up.
Initial Claims 4 week avg