I've done an update to my ideas page. (members click here) This week's write-up includes specific equity, ETN, and ETF commentary. I include this to show what specifically I am looking at on a risk/reward basis as well as idea generation that can then be applied to your own investments and risk analysis. This will be a permanent, but just the latest, addition to …
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GDP, Fiscal vs Monetary in 2017, Overseas Inflation and more…
The US economy grew by 1.9% annualized in Q4, below the estimate of 2.2% and brings the 4 quarter average for 2016 to 1.9% which is in line with the 1.9% gain we saw in 2015. Personal spending was up by 2.5% which was in line with the consensus and mostly driven by a gain in spending on durable goods. The investment side saw improvement in capital investment as …
[Read more...] about GDP, Fiscal vs Monetary in 2017, Overseas Inflation and more…
Holiday retail sales mediocre, PPI
Looking right at core December retail sales (ex auto’s, building materials and gasoline), they rose by just .2% m/o/m, below expectations of up .4% and November was revised down by one tenth. Sales ex auto’s and gasoline saw no change m/o/m instead of rising also by .4%. Auto sales as seen last week were strong with a 2.4% m/o/m jump and finishes the year up 7.4% …
2017 Investing – Food For Thought
Yesterday I detailed potential bullish and bearish events that could shape markets in 2017. Today I want to go over some investment ideas that are on my mind for the New Year. As I can’t mention individual stocks, I’ll have to get macro with my investment ideas that reflect my typical contrarian approach. I remain positive on some emerging markets as that is …
Shanghai Comp’s Slow Bleed, BoJ, UK and more…
Chinese markets continue their slow bleed. The Shanghai comp closed at its lowest level in almost two months (and still down almost 50% from its 2007 bubble peak). Year to date it’s lower by 12%. The H share index ended the day down 1% and is lower by 4% year to date. Tightening credit, higher US interest rates and the weaker yuan, home buying restrictions, and wealth …
[Read more...] about Shanghai Comp’s Slow Bleed, BoJ, UK and more…
FOMC, 30 Year Bond Auction, Biz Confidence, China, Europe and more
A new political regime took hold on November 8th and tomorrow we’ll see if there is any acknowledgement of that from the FOMC and whether we’re about to embark on a new monetary regime. I would define ‘new monetary regime’ as anything more aggressive than the pace of one rate hike per year. I’ve argued that a new market driven interest rate regime (end of the bond …
[Read more...] about FOMC, 30 Year Bond Auction, Biz Confidence, China, Europe and more
12/9 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Positives The UoM consumer confidence index rose to 98 from 93.8 in November. The estimate was 94.5 and this is the best level since January 2015 which is just .1 pts from the highest since 2004. The UoM said “the surge was largely due to consumers’ initial reactions to Trump’s surprise victory.” Both current conditions and expectations were higher and 1 yr …
[Read more...] about 12/9 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Bond Yields, Earnings and more…
Getting right to the focus of the durable goods number, core capital spending fell 1.2% m/o/m, well worse than expectations of a .1% drop. This was only partially offset by a three tenths rise in August to up 1.2%. On a y/o/y basis, core capital spending is down 3.6%. Vehicle/parts orders were positive by 1.2% m/o/m and 1.9% y/o/y but inventories in this space are …
[Read more...] about Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, Bond Yields, Earnings and more…
10/21 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Positives Some would put this in the Negative column on the grounds of unneeded political intervention but I have it here because I believe it’s important for central bankers that are unelected and have done extraordinary things to both hear complements and criticism. They seem only to accept the former and claim independence when they hear the latter. MP Michael …
[Read more...] about 10/21 – Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
CPI, Home Builder Survey, Chinese Credit and more…
Headline CPI rose .3% m/o/m and 1.5% y/o/y. That y/o/y gain is up from 1.1% in August and is the quickest pace of gain since October 2014. While the headline was in line, the core rate was one tenth less than expected with a .1% m/o/m rise and 2.2% y/o/y jump. Energy prices were still down 2.9% y/o/y but that continues to shrink. Food prices were lower by .3% y/o/y. …
[Read more...] about CPI, Home Builder Survey, Chinese Credit and more…
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.