Based on comments hitting the tape from Kevin McCarthy and Michael McCaul, it seems like finally a deal is close. Bond yields are selling off in response with the 2 yr yield now at 4.5% and the 10 yr is rising to 3.78%. The 2 yr yield is now up 60 bps in the past 2 weeks.
Initial jobless claims totaled 229k vs the estimate of 245k and last week was revised down by a sharp 17k to 225k. Maybe this is normalizing the fraudulent reports from Massachusetts and Kentucky from a few weeks ago. The 4 week average held at 232k. Continuing claims fell by 5k to 1.794mm but not far from the highest since December 2021.
Bottom line, while the pace of hiring has slowed and continuing claims are not far from the highest since a year and a half ago, the pace of firing’s still remains relatively muted as it’s clear that outside of certain industries, companies are seemingly reluctant to give up on the tough to get employee base over the past few years.
Initial Claims 4 week avg
Continuing Claims
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