The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index rose to 59.5 from 58.2 and just below the estimate of 60. Expectations rose by 1.9 pts and the Current Conditions component was up by .3 pts. One yr inflation expectations moderated to 4.6% from 4.8% which is back to where it was last August. It got as high as 5.4% in March and was at 2.50% in January 2020. …
“I think so”
So, as we add FedEx to the list of company preannouncements, they won't be the last. "Global volumes declined as macroeconomic trends significantly worsened later in the quarter, both internationally and in the US" said the new CEO Raj Subramaniam in the press release. On CNBC last night he said "we're seeing volume declines in every segment of the world...the weekly …
Retail sales, Claims, Mfr’g, and still debating recession?
In nominal terms in August, core retail sales were unchanged m/o/m, well under the estimate of up .5%. July was revised down by 4 tenths to a .4% gain. Overall sales, which include also gasoline, auto’s and building materials, saw a .3% gain so on an inflation adjusted basis, REAL retail sales were negative in August and expect a cut to GDP estimates today for Q3, …
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Earnings backdrop getting shakier
Good news that the railroads and its unions have come to a tentative agreement and the rail stocks pre market are ripping higher. On to the next worry. A few days ago we got a negative preannouncement from Eastman Chemical. Yesterday we got it from Nucor and also at the Morgan Stanley industrials conference Alcoa said "The third quarter is shaping up to be a …
PPI about as expected
August PPI was down .1% headline as expected but up by .4% ex food and energy, one tenth more than forecasted. The y/o/y gains are decelerating as comps are tough and commodity prices pullback, along with transportation costs with the headline gain of 8.7% vs 9.8% in July. The core rate was higher by 7.3% vs 7.6% in the month before. Gasoline prices fell almost 13% …
No chance
I'll start by saying I think there is no chance the Fed hikes rates by 100 bps next week. Three meetings in a row of 75 bps will be heroic already for this formerly dovish crew. The key thereafter is how much rearview mirror driving will the Fed continue to do as next week's rate hike will be just the 2nd time in 40 years that the fed funds rate was taken above …
Not so fast on the inflation moderation thing
Headline CPI rose .1% m/o/m in August instead of falling by .1% as predicted. The core rate was higher by .6% m/o/m, double the estimate. Versus last year, headline inflation rose 8.3% y/o/y and the core rate was higher by 6.3%. While energy prices fell 5% from July (9% of CPI), food prices rose .8% (14% of CPI). Service prices ex energy rose .6% m/o/m and 6.1% …
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Drum roll please
Let’s just say we get a below estimate print on CPI but the Fed still hikes by 75 bps next week. What it would do is reinforce what central bankers are telling us. They would rather overdue it with tighter monetary policy in order to convincingly slay inflation. That seems to be their plan but if only it was that simple in terms of how it plays out. I say that …
New Podcast: My Conversation with Conor Flynn of Kimco Realty
I once again visited with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan of the On The Tape Podcast where we discussed rate hikes, big tech, and what scenarios would allow the market to get through this period of turmoil without more steep declines. Inside you'll also find my longer conversation with Conor Flynn, CEO of Kimco Realty where we discuss the state of real estate, consumer …
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Not much
While I've been thinking that a lower than expected CPI tomorrow would result in a 50 bps Fed hike in a few weeks rather than 75 bps, reading closely to what voting members Waller and Mester said on Friday tells me otherwise. Governor Waller said "The consequences of being fooled by a temporary softening in inflation could be even greater now if another misjudgment …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.