Payrolls in August grew by just 235k, well below the estimate of 733k, partially offset by an upward revision to the two prior months of 134k. In fact, July specifically was revised to over 1mm. The private sector added 243k vs 798k in July (revised up by 95k). The household survey was solid, with an increase of 509k after a 1.04mm print in July. Combine this with the …
It won’t be so simple today
Viewing today's payroll number as binary is incorrect I believe and too simplistic. Lower number, good for markets because the Fed won't taper or strong and a September announcement it is? That easy? Well, if we see that latter then yes it's taper time but what if it is the former for the reason that it's due to a shortage of workers and higher wages and that means …
Claims figures
Initial jobless claims fell to 340k from 354k last week and that was 5k less than expected. Those filing for PUA dropped by 14k w/o/w to a 4 week low. Delayed by a week, continuing claims declined to 2.75mm which is the lowest since March 2020 from an upwardly revised 2.91mm last week. Delayed by two weeks, those still getting PUA jumped by 408k to 5.4mm, the most …
Not much going on
There is not much going on ahead of tomorrow's payroll report and the morning after the tri state area got pounded with rain. AAII said the Bulls are back, rising 3.8 pts w/o/w and 10.2 pts over the past two weeks to 43.4. That is the most since July 1st and the 3rd highest read dating back to the beginning of June. All those Bulls though came from the Neutral camp …
US Manufacturing
The August ISM manufacturing index was up slightly at 59.9 from July's print of 59.5. That was 1.4 pts above expectations. New orders rose 1.8 pts m/o/m to 66.7 which is just above the 6 month average of 66.2. Backlogs were higher by 3.2 pts to 68.2 and 1 pt above its 6 month average. Inventories bounced back above 50, higher by 5.3 pts to 54.2. Customer inventories …
ADP jobs report
ADP said in August that just a net 374k private sector jobs were created, well below the estimate of 625k and vs 326k in July (revised from 330k). This slows the 3 month average to 460k vs the 6 month average of 567k. The service sector contributed 329k of the job gains vs 311k in July and 684k in June. The goods producing area added 45k vs 15k in July and 57k in …
A lot of cooks here too
Following what ECB member Holzmann said yesterday about wanting to get closer to cutting back on their PEPP program, ECB member and Dutch governor Klaas Knot echoed the same thing afterwards. "The starts are much getter aligned than they have been for a long time for the return of inflation back to 2%." But, early this morning ECB VP Luis de Guindos said maybe not so …
Flation results in Stag with a sprinkle of Delta
S&P CoreLogic said its June home price index rose 19% y/o/y rounded up. That exceeds the biggest pace of gains in the mid 2000's. The gains in some of the biggest cities was just eye popping. Home prices rose 29.3% in Phoenix, 27% in San Diego and 25% in Seattle. These increases are for houses where people need their income to pay for, not tech stocks but one …
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The rent is ‘too damn high’/ECB about to change tact?
Ahead of the S&P CoreLogic June home price index today where home prices likely rose about 18% y/o/y, a really out of control pace that is unsustainable and unhealthy, today Apartment List's August national report said rents rose 2.1% in the month of August from July. While that is down from the 2.5% jump in July from June, rents are up "a staggering 13.8% year to …
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If you needed a reminder
If you weren't of the belief that the US economy is now challenged by stagflation then I encourage you to read the company comments from today's August Dallas manufacturing index which fell to 9 from 27.3. The 6 month outlook slumped to 15.1 from 37.1 and that is the lowest since July 2020. Chemical Mfr'g:"We are having increased difficulty in procurement of raw …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.