Existing home sales in June, reflecting many contract signings in the March thru May time frame, totaled 4.72mm, 30k less than expected but up from 3.91mm in May as things were only just reopening. This figured was 5.27mm in March and 5.76mm in February. As homes for sale didn’t keep up, months’ supply fell to 4.0 from 4.8 but that is where it was in April and above …
Gold, silver, real rates, dollar/Other
The rally in gold and silver, which I remain bullish on (particularly the latter), continues to be helped by the fall in real rates and the drop in the US dollar. The euro heavy dollar index is a stone's throw from the weakest level since September 2018 while the 10 yr inflation breakeven is at the highest level since early March, rising another 2.7 bps yesterday to …
What a day/EU agrees on its slush fund/Other
Yesterday was pretty incredible in the market cap increases we saw in the mega cap tech names. Tesla for example added $26b in market cap in its rally from 12pm to 4pm in its 10% rally. That's the size of Ford's entire market cap. Amazon added about two Target Corp's to its market cap yesterday. TSLA intraday I wish I can say that yesterday's equity rally …
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‘Daddy’s gonna pay for your crashed car’
We are now in the midst of a moment of truth for the markets and the economy from a fundamental perspective. For months, all negative news on the economy or earnings was given a look past as we focused instead on the reopenings and the seeming containment of the virus both here and abroad. We also had extreme easing of course on the part of the Fed and massive fiscal …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/17
Positives 1)Moderna, while still having to progress thru phase 3 trials, reported positive antibody results from phase 1 data and brings us a step closer to that hoped for vaccine. 2)Disney World, "the happiest place on earth", reopened. 3)Refi's bounced by 12% w/o/w and are up 107% y/o/y as mortgage rates took another leg lower, down by 7 bps on the …
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The 1st July industrial figure out
The July NY manufacturing index rose to 17.2 from -.2 and that was better than the estimate of 10. New orders got back above zero at 13.9 while backlogs remained a hair below at -.6 but that is up from -12.5 in June. Inventories though went further negative to -9.7 from -.6 and maybe that's why we saw the new order rebound as these inventories have to be rebuilt. …
Great news but what is up with bonds?
The great Moderna news is a reminder that this Covid nightmare will end at some point and stocks are certainly celebrating that. Stating the obvious will be the performance today in Live Nation, the airlines, the casinos, the cruise lines, the restaurants, and MSG to name a few stocks and industries in terms of seeing the markets belief on when these businesses can …
Consumer prices
The June CPI rose .6% headline and .2% core m/o/m, about as expected. The y/o/y increase is .6% headline and 1.2% ex food and energy. A 5.1% m/o/m gain in energy and .6% rise in food drove the headline increase relative to May. As for the core, medical care costs continue to rise at a heady pace with a .4% m/o/m rise and 5.1% y/o/y. Health insurance prices in …
Growth vs Value/NFIB/Other
As a long suffering value investor I didn't know whether to laugh or cry when I saw this chart from my good buddy David Rosenberg yesterday in his daily Breakfast With Dave research. It's the relationship between growth and value where the ratio now exceeds the 2000 peak. SOURCE: Haver Analytics, Rosenberg Research Yes, the California news yesterday …
Not much today
Maybe the fact that Disney World opened the same weekend that the virus count continues to spike in Florida is a continued reflection that the stock market believes we will power thru this virus from here with the help of mask wearing, hoped for drugs, and vaccines by year end. Of course the US Treasury market is more suspect about how well we can do this and to what …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.