Peter Boockvar

I'm going to talk about Japanese bonds again and the BoJ because I don't think people are appreciating that after about 20 years of trying to suppress interest rates, the BoJ wants HIGHER long term rates. The Japanese had its worst 10 yr bond auction today since 2016 a day (in terms of the bid to cover) after the BoJ specifically said they are going to be buying less …

[Read more...] about Again, please watch what is going on with JGB’s

For the 3rd month in the past 4 the September Chicago manufacturing PMI was below 50. Today's print went from 50.4 to 47.1. On a quarterly basis, we've just seen the slowest pace of growth since Q3 2009. Production fell to the lowest since May 2009 while new orders fell 7.6 pts to below 50 at 48.5. Order backlogs are down to 46.8 from 51.3 and inventories are all the …

[Read more...] about Chicago area mfr’g back in contraction

I'l just say this about the vague story Friday about the US possibly restricting investments in China or US listed Chinese stocks. I'm all for holding Chinese companies to the same accounting and disclosure standards as all other foreign companies do relative to US companies. As for the variable interest entities that are the US traded Chinese companies, buyer beware …

[Read more...] about I got some stuff for you, particularly on bond yields

Core durable goods orders in August were a bit weaker than expected, falling .2% m/o/m instead of seeing no change as forecasted. Versus last year, core capital spending is down 1.7%. Orders from July fell for vehicles/parts, electrical equipment and computers/electronics but rose for machinery and metals. Shipments of core goods, plugged into GDP, was up by …

[Read more...] about Cap spending softens as does spending, income good, PCE in line

The valuation revaluations continue with Peloton and Endeavor following WeWorks, Uber, Lyft, etc...This is not an issue with the IPO market, this is a rethink on excessive multiples relative to earnings, or the lack thereof. It is a sea change at this stage of the cycle. I wish I can get into the head of some central bankers because I still can't figure out their …

[Read more...] about The rethink continues/Other

Pending home sales in August rose 1.6% m/o/m, a touch above the estimate of up 1%. This follows a 2.5% drop in July and 2.8% rise in June. Sales gains were led by a jump out West. Bottom line, there is no question that sales have responded to the drop in mortgage rates but there is bifurcation within the market. The upper end is slow, particularly in the high tax …

[Read more...] about Housing

Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, about in line with the estimate of 212k and compares with 210k last week (revised from 208k). The 4 week average now is 212k vs 213k last week and that matches the lowest since April. Also of note, continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the least since October 2018. The bottom line remains the same bottom line for a while …

[Read more...] about The pace of firing’s remains low

Hong Kong's trade data for August was weak but about as expected. Exports fell 6.3% y/o/y, marking the 10th straight month with y/o/y declines but that was a bit better than the estimate of a 7.4% drop. Imports were down by 11.1%, about in line and with China making up about half their imports and which were lower by 12.5%. Bottom line, the trade weakness is not a …

[Read more...] about Some economic data