Initial jobless claims totaled 2.44mm, about as expected and down from 2.688mm last week (revised from 2.98mm). It's the 7th week in a row of moderation, although remains alarming high. Reflecting this concern is the 25mm of continuing claims. The hope of course with all of these numbers is that as things reopen and extra benefits expire on July 31st (assuming they …
Forward guidance/Some data
There was nothing new in the minutes yesterday from the FOMC meeting from 3 weeks prior but there was a discussion on forward guidance. With forward guidance basically telling the markets that they won't raise rates until certainly employment and inflation hurdles are met, the Fed's thinking is no one has to worry about higher rates for a while. If the words don't …
Enough with the NIRP debate/Inflation/Sentiment/Housing
You don't need central bank induced negative rates to have negative rates. The UK sold 3 yr gilts totaling 3.75b pounds at a yield of .003%. Now we can call that a 'technical' difference and that it is still essentially zero. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey does speak today and I do expect him again to downplay the implementation of negative rates. After the experience …
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Housing starts and permits
Housing starts in April totaled 891k, about as expected but due to the obvious that is a moderation from the 1.28mm pace in March. Underneath the hood, single family starts slowed to 650k from 871k in March and over 1mm in February. Multi family starts totaled just 241k vs 405k in March and 533k in February. There was of course a mix of forced shutdowns of …
The tools are there we’re told but do we really want to see them all?
At 10am est we'll hear again from Fed Chair Jay Powell in his virtual testimony in front of the Senate and he will repeat what he said on 60 Minutes with respect to "We're not out of ammunition by a long shot." No central banker EVER will say otherwise keep in mind. His prepared text, released yesterday, says "We are committed to using our full range of tools to …
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NAHB’s Home Builder Survey
The May NAHB home builder sentiment index improved by 7 pts m/o/m to 37 and that was 2 pts above the estimate but still about half the 72 print in March. Present Conditions rose 6 pts to 42 from April and compares with 79 in March. Future Expectations were up by 10 pts m/o/m to 46 and compares with 75 in March. Prospective Buyers Traffic rose to 21 from 13 and vs 56 …
The reflation trade is on today
The reflation trade is on today on further hopes of a better global economy as things reopen and covid counts continue to decline. WTI is back above $30, copper is higher by 2.2%, silver is up for a 3rd straight day, up 3.6% today and up 13% over the 3 days. Aluminum, nickel and zinc are each up around 1% and gold is higher by almost the same amount. Platinum is …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/15
Positives 1)//twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1260946980710350855 2)The preliminary May UoM consumer confidence index rose to 73.7 from 71.8 and that was above the estimate of 68. The swing factor on the rise was the Current Conditions component which jumped to 83 from 74.3 after falling by 29.4 pts in April. The Expectations component fell by 2.4 pts …
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UoM Consumer Confidence
The preliminary May UoM consumer confidence index rose to 73.7 from 71.8 and that was above the estimate of 68. The swing factor on the rise was the Current Conditions component which jumped to 83 from 74.3 after falling by 29.4 pts in April. The Expectations component fell by 2.4 pts m/o/m to 67.7 and which was 92.1 back in February. Likely thanks to rising food …
Retail sales/NY mfr’g
Retail sales in April taking out auto's, gasoline and building materials (leaving us with the 'control group') fell by 15.3% m/o/m, three times the estimate. Online retail sales rose 8.4% m/o/m and 21.2% y/o/y. Everything else was awful but that's what you get when things are closed. What happens from here as stores/restaurants gradually reopen in the coming months is …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.