The Chicago manufacturing May PMI, the last regional survey seen before next week’s ISM numbers, rose to 54.2 from 52.6 and vs 58.7 in the month prior. The estimate was 54. The average year to date is now 57.4 vs 62.4 last year. MNI said “Despite the pick up in sentiment, the survey points to softness in business activity, as indicated by the 3 month average slipping …
[Read more...] about Chicago mfr’g/Confidence & tariffs now in conversation
Not that it matters for markets today but the April PCE inflation stats were about as expected. The headline deflator rose .3% m/o/m led by energy and 1.5% y/o/y while the core rate was higher by .2% m/o/m and 1.6% y/o/y. Cry me a river for the US consumer that PCE is not closer to 2%. Yes, inflation stats are moderating and the Fed won’t be happy with that but the …
So this is no more about free and fair trade, reciprocity, and protection of technological expertise. Tariffs can be thrown around as an economic bomb for anything now. Global growth rates will only continue to suffer. Sovereign bonds are loving it as the German 10 yr yield falls to a record low of an astonishing -.21%. Netherlands 10 yr is now below zero and the …
Pending home sales in April fell 1.5% m/o/m, an unexpected drop relative to the estimate of up .5%. Three of the four regions saw declines with the Midwest the only one seeing an increase. The Northeast, which as you know has been a focus of mine in light of the cap on the SALT deduction, saw the 4th month in the past 5 with declines. Over these 5 months in this …
Initial jobless claims totaled 215k, about in line with the forecast of 214k and vs 212k last week (revised up by 1k). The 4 week average is now 217k vs 221k last week as a 230k print drops out. For perspective, the 217k average is about the same as the one year average of 218k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 26k to just above the lowest in 50 years. …
According to AAII which measures the stock market sentiment of individual investors, Bulls were little changed at 24.8, a hair above the lowest level since mid December. Bears rose 4 pts w/o/w to 40, the most since the first week of January. For the sake of a market bounce, in the short term, this is the type of sentiment you want to see. Keep in mind though that I …
[Read more...] about Sentiment/Modern Monetary Self Evaluation
After a great 2 yr auction and a decent 5 yr seen yesterday, today’s 7 yr was really poor. The yield of 2.144% was about 2 bps above the when issued which is a big difference. The bid to cover of 2.30 was below the one year average of 2.53 and the lowest since February 2016. Lastly, dealers got stuck with 30% of the auction, the most since March 2018. What a …
Bullish sentiment only cooled slightly w/o/w according to II. Bulls fell by .5 pt to 49 and again, almost all went to the Correction side which rose for a 4th straight week to the highest since early January. For some reason, maybe way too much faith in the Fed, Bears are just .1 pt from a 14 month low at 17.3. Bottom line, from a contrarian standpoint it is good to …
We finally got a good 2 yr note auction. The yield of 2.125% was priced 1 bp lower than the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.75 was above the one year average of 2.64 and the best since August 2018. Lastly and reflecting solid demand, direct and indirect bidders took 74% of the auction, the most since January 2018 and well more than the 12 month average of 60% and …
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index for May rose 4.9 pts m/o/m to 134.1 and that was 4.1 pts better than expected. It follows a 5 pt rise in April and is at the best level since October. For perspective, the 12 month average is now 130.5. In contrast to the rise in inflation expectations in the UoM confidence figure, one year inflation expectations in …
[Read more...] about Consumer confidence up but not for young people
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
