The 2 yr note auction was good with a yield of 1.601% vs the when issued slightly higher. Also, the bid to cover of 2.63 was above the one year average of 2.58 and direct and indirect bidders took the most of any 2 yr auction since May 2016 leaving dealers with the least since then. Bottom line, we know the Fed is not raising rates anytime soon and if anything …
[Read more...] about 2 yr auction good/If only the 10 yr can talk
The Dallas manufacturing index in November was still negative, for a 2nd month, but less so at -1.3 vs -5.1 in October and a bit better than the estimate of -3.8. The outlook though was muted as the ‘Company Outlook’ component fell to -2.1 from +8.8. New orders remained negative too for a 2nd month at -3.0 vs -4.2 in October. Backlogs were less than zero for a 5th …
[Read more...] about Dallas mfr’g index, below zero again but less so
So the news over the weekend that China was taking even greater steps to protect IP via raising penalties against those guilty of violations was great to see. I still though think it's important from a market perspective to compare what this phase one deal will end up looking like (I think we'll get one) vs the one that was almost inked in May. The one in May was …
Positives 1)The Markit manufacturing and services composite November PMI index rose 1 pt to 51.9 with manufacturing up to 52.2 from 51.3 and the services side rising 1 pt to 51.6. Quantifying the current levels, Markit said it’s consistent with GDP growth of about 1.5% and job growth of “approximately 100,000.” Still, “business expectations for the future are …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/22
We got some improvement in November in the Markit manufacturing and services PMI. The composite index rose 1 pt to 51.9 with manufacturing up to 52.2 from 51.3 and the services side rising 1 pt to 51.6. With manufacturing, the better read “was supported by sharper and solid expansions in production and new orders” and backlogs “registered the first increase in …
[Read more...] about Markit’s PMI bounces/Consumer confidence & politics
As just a follow up to my comments yesterday on the CCC bucket of high yield where I just mentioned the absolute yield rise. Here is a chart of the index option adjusted spread. It is now above the late December/early January spike at over 1000 bps. It certainly remains well below its energy led jump in late 2015 but we need to differentiate this move from that late …
Existing home sales in October totaled 5.46mm, a touch below the estimate of 5.49mm and September was revised down by 20k to 5.36mm. These October closings likely captured contract signings mostly in the July thru September time frame. As the number of homes for sale shrank, the months’ supply fell to 3.9 from 4.1 and that is the lowest since March but keep in mind …
For the 2nd week in a row, initial jobless claims came in well more than expected. At 227k, it compares with the estimate of 218k and last week was revised to 227k from 225 (the initial estimate was 215k). This brings the 4 week average up to 221k from 217.5k and that is the highest since late June. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, rose by 3k to the most since …
Let's be honest, if we didn't use tariffs as the tool (as opposed to other methods which I firmly believe there were others) to get China to change its ways, the global economy would be in a better state, many businesses wouldn't feel hostage to the outcome of the talks and markets wouldn't be shifting on every single damn headline. But it is what it is right now and …
On the Hong Kong legislation news in the US Senate, most of Asia was red and which is leading the rest of the world. In particular the Hang Seng was lower by .75% while the Shanghai comp and the H share index was down by a similar amount. Who knows now what this means for the trade discussions. Obviously getting to the finish line is the big challenge here. Global …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
