After typically writing on each Treasury note auction, I’ve now just focused on longer term ones as the short end is of course tied to the Fed. Today’s 7 yr note auction was great and follows too solid auctions in 2s and 5s over the prior two days. The yield of 3.517% was under the when issued of almost 3.54%. The bid to cover of 2.69 was well above the 12 month …
Home sales and what’s to come
New home sales in December totaled 616k, about as expected but November was revised down by 38k to 602k. Months’ supply was 9 vs 9.2 in November and 9.4 in October. Some of this supply though is not fully finished homes. The y/o/y home price gain was up 7.8% but bounces around a lot because of mix. We know builders have been less inclined to lower home prices so as …
We eked out 1% real GDP growth Q4 ’21 to Q4 ’22/Claims
The US economy grew by 2.9% q/o/q annualized, 3 tenths above the estimate but a breakdown of the components is key. Personal spending, the bulk of GDP, was up only 2.1%, 8 tenths less than forecasted with most being spent on services. Inventories added 150 bps to GDP growth, trade added 6 tenths as did government spending. With respect to private domestic investment, …
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Dancing on the fine line/up to 90k/Sentiment/Notable quotes
While I don't think the news from the Bank of Canada was that much of surprise as their new rate is still at 4.5%, it was what Governor Macklem said in his press conference that highlights the fine line they and other central banks are trying to walk here. He said "We are trying to balance the risks of under and over tightening. If we do too little, the decline …
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The China reopening and what some execs said on their calls
On my continued big focus on the China reopening, Inside Asian Gaming last night reported "Macau daily visitor arrivals soar past 70,000 as Golden Week starts to shine." They said this was "by far the highest single day tally since Covid border restrictions were first put in place in early 2020." Most came from mainland China and Hong Kong and Monday's figure …
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7 straight months
The US January manufacturing and services PMI from S&P Global did rise to 46.6 from 45 but still marks the 7th straight month in contraction. The services index was 46.6 vs 44.7 while manufacturing was up .6 pts m/o/m to 46.8. With respect to services, S&P Global described it as less bad, “that said, customer hesitancy and the impact of inflation on …
Company comments/PMI’s/China’s economic influence from here
In MMM, a great proxy for economic activity because of their broad spectrum of product lines, missed numbers and said this in their press release, "The slower than expected growth was due to rapid declines in consumer facing markets - a dynamic that accelerated in December - along with significant slowing in China due to Covid related disruptions. As demand weakened, …
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NABE survey/Auto credit quality/The euro
The National Association of Business Economics released its January 2023 business conditions survey of 60 of its members taken place between January 4th thru the 11th. According to the NABE the results "indicate widespread concern about entering a recession this year. For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect falling rather than increased employment at …
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A few things
Along with the slowdown in the rise in inflation we know we've seen a pretty sharp drop in US inflation breakevens. For perspective, entering 2020 the 10 yr implied inflation rate was at about 1.80%, peaked at 3.04% in April 2022 and as of Wednesday stood at 2.12%. I don't usually focus on TIPS auctions but yesterday's 10 yr was solid. The yield of 1.22% was a large 4 …
Claims, mfr’g and housing stats
Initial jobless claims fell under 200k at 190k vs the estimate of 214k and down from 205k last week. The 4 week average fell to 206k from 213k in the week before. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 17k to 1.647mm but after falling by 67k in the week before. Bottom line, as the MLK holiday likely influenced the figure, wait until next week to get a cleaner …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.