Positives 1)The pace of virus spread is slowing in Asia. 2)Central banks are flooding the world with money in order to grease markets and ease funding concerns. 3)The broad shutdowns are economically damaging but needed in order to slow the rate of spread and give time for millions of test kits to arrive. 4)For the week ended March 7th, initial …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: – 3/13
Here is the two main things that the Fed's huge maneuvers yesterday were meant for: 1)We know the Fed has buying $60b per month in T-bills, thus taking supply out of the market. Now with tax season and money coming in, the Treasury typically sells less T-bills and combined with Fed buying, there was literally a shortage of T-bills coming. So the Fed in response …
So here in a nutshell is what the ECB just announced while keeping rates unchanged in their deeply negative state: 1)They added to their longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) in bridge fashion until an already announced one begins in June and said “Although the Governing Council does not see material signs of strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in …
For the week ended March 7th, initial jobless claims actually fell by 4k to 211k, 9k less than expected. This is a high frequency number and hasn’t showed any stress yet but it just seems inevitable that we are on the cusp of a jump. PPI was soft across the board, falling m/o/m and moderating the headline y/o/y increase to 1.3% and the core rate of 1.4%. Bottom …
[Read more...] about Claims yet to show growing stress/PPI down now, up later?
As economically brutal all these shutdown announcements are, it needs to happen. Getting more aggressive in shutting down large gatherings is the only thing that can slow the spread no matter the short term economic pain. Hopefully too in coming weeks our healthcare system will get flooded with test kits so we can then better separate the healthy from the sick. As …
[Read more...] about However painful, these shutdowns need to happen
The February headline CPI was higher by .1% m/o/m while the core rate was up by .2% m/o/m. Versus last year, headline CPI was up by 2.3% and which will obviously reverse itself in March with the plunge in oil prices. Core CPI though remains persistent, rising by 2.4% y/o/y, matching the highest level in 11 ½ years. As stated many times, the calculation differences is …
So the Bank of England not only cut interest rates by 50 bps to just above zero at .25% but they also surrounded it with direct steps to provide liquidity and funding to banks which hopefully in turn will help those businesses that need it. For the next year they will provide 4 yr term funding for small and medium sized businesses that could total up to 100b pounds at …
[Read more...] about The BoE acts/Sentiment/Mortgage apps/China
Well, if there was to be a contrarian sentiment set up for a rally after yesterday's plunge it was the closing CNN Fear/Greed index which ended the day at just 3 out of 100. It was 3 in late December 2018. //money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/. According to my friend Helene Meisler, the Daily Sentiment Index ended yesterday at just 5 for the SPX and 4 for the …
While demand destruction from the spreading virus was an obvious negative impact on the price of oil, a Saudi Arabia-Russia spat and the response from Saudi Arabia was certainly not on my radar screen, nor anyone else I know. Lower oil prices along with a decline in mortgage rates for those looking to refi are certainly positive for the consumers but I believe …
After wanting to hire Eric Rosengren this morning as Chair of the Federal Reserve I now want him fired after hearing him say today that “We should allow the central bank to purchase a broader range of securities or assets. Such a policy, however, would require a change in the Federal Reserve Act.” This coming from someone who has expressed worry last year …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
