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Peter Boockvar

June 10, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/10

Positives 1)The US trade deficit in April narrowed to $87.1b from $107.7b in March which was a record high. Exports rose by 3.5% while imports fell by 3.4%. 2)After seeing a 1.3% increase in April from March, producer prices in Japan were unchanged m/o/m in May. That was below the estimate of up .6% but the y/o/y gain was still 9.1% vs 9.8% in the month before. …

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June 10, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Record low consumer confidence

Consumer confidence took another big hit in May with the UoM index falling to 50.2 from 58.4. That is the weakest level on record with this survey back to 1978. Both the main Current Conditions and Expectations components were down again. One yr inflation expectations rose one tenth to 5.4%, matching the highest level since 1981. Inflation expectations longer term, …

[Read more...] about Record low consumer confidence

June 10, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Hot inflation, back to 100% odds of another 50 bps in Sept

May headline CPI rose by 1% m/o/m, 3 tenths more than expected while the core rate was higher by .6% m/o/m which was one tenth more than anticipated. Versus last year, headline inflation is up 8.6%, a new cycle high and the core rate printed up 6%. Energy prices, 8% of CPI, was higher by 3.9% m/o/m and 35% y/o/y. Food/beverages (14% of CPI) was higher by 1.1% m/o/m …

[Read more...] about Hot inflation, back to 100% odds of another 50 bps in Sept

June 10, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Fragmenting again/Japan steps up verbal intervention

When ECB president Christine Lagarde talks about wanting to avoid fragmentation in European bonds, she doesn't want to see spread widening between Germany and the higher indebted countries like Italy, Spain and Portugal. Today the Italian 10 yr/German 10 yr yield spread is widening by another 5 bps to the widest since May 2020 at 224 bps but for perspective, it got as …

[Read more...] about Fragmenting again/Japan steps up verbal intervention

June 9, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

European yields jumping AGAIN/Jobless claims

Ahead of the ECB presser, European bonds are again selling off sharply after the prepared statement hinted at the possibility of a more than 25 bps rate hike in September after they do 25 bps in July “If the medium term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates.” The German 2 yr yield is jumping by 12 bps to .825, the highest since August 2011. Their 10 yr yield is …

[Read more...] about European yields jumping AGAIN/Jobless claims

June 9, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

No landing seen here/Other stuff

If this chart of 2022 earnings estimates is any indication, the sellside assumes not just a soft landing for the economy, but not even a landing as estimates go to a new high. I just don't see how this possibly can be achieved. 2022 EPS Estimate Adding some color to the high level of inventory that many retailers hold of certain goods that consumers …

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June 8, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Weak 10 yr auction

Treasury yields are rising to the highs of the day after the soft results of the 10 yr note auction. The yield of 3.03% was more than 1 bp above the when issued pricing. The bid to cover of 2.41 was below the one yr average of 2.51 and the lowest since last November. And, dealers got left with 17% of the auction, the 2nd highest amount in a year. This as QT is upon …

[Read more...] about Weak 10 yr auction

June 8, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

Again, the yen and European yields/Housing/Consumer borrowing

The yen and European bonds again are the main market story I believe again today, or at least should be. The yen is down another 1% and is on a fast track to a 24 yr low vs the US dollar if it sells off less than another one yen. The catalyst remains the same and BoJ Governor Kuroda said it again today, "At this moment, the Bank of Japan must continue its support for …

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June 7, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

RBA/Hotel CA/Yen/Silver/RH, TGT

The Reserve Bank of Australia is another central bank that went way too far with its easing over the past few years and now is doing a complete 180. They hiked rates overnight by 50 bps to .85%, the biggest move since 2000. Only a 25 bps rate hike was expected. Governor Lowe said "The board is committed to doing what is necessary to ensure that inflation in Australia …

[Read more...] about RBA/Hotel CA/Yen/Silver/RH, TGT

June 6, 2022 By Peter Boockvar

The rising cost of equity capital/Some data/Boris

Lower stock prices tighten financial conditions in two ways. One is direct and the other is more indirect. It raises the cost of equity for those companies looking to issue it in order to raise capital and it might (and likely does) influence the spending behavior of those who feel less wealthy. On the former, the front page of the Financial Times today is reporting …

[Read more...] about The rising cost of equity capital/Some data/Boris

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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