Peter Boockvar

The May ISM manufacturing index rose .5 pt to 61.2, about as expected. New orders grew by 2.7 pts to 67, getting back most of what it lost in April. Backlogs, not surprisingly at this point, rose again and now sits at 70.6, the highest on record dating back to 1993. The problem of course right now is delivering on these backlog orders. Inventories at the manufacturing …

[Read more...] about The “struggle to meet increasing levels of demand.”

Crude oil is the story this morning as it breaks out to the highest level since October 2018. In this whole transitory or not debate on inflation I'll emphatically say that what is permanent is a lower base of oil and gas investment in the coming years/decades. If you are a CEO of an oil and gas company and every single day you are hearing from environmentalists, …

[Read more...] about Oil/PMI’s

Coming two weeks after the April CPI report, the April PCE inflation deflator rose .6% m/o/m and .7% core (the highest since 1983 not including the influence of 9/11). The headline number was as expected but March was revised up to a 6 tenths increase from 5 tenths. The core rate was one tenth more than estimated and follows a 4 tenths increase in March. One can’t …

[Read more...] about Inflation, income & spending/Goods deficit

The June 10th ECB meeting is going to be really interesting. On Wednesday we heard from Executive Board member Panetta who wants to remain full speed ahead with QE and specifically the PEPP where the E stands for Emergency. Today Isabel Schnabel, another Executive Board member said "Rising yields are a natural development at a turning point in the recovery, investors …

[Read more...] about ECB, European confidence & inflation/Japan breakevens bust out

Pending home sales in April fell 4.4% m/o/m, well below the forecast of a slight increase of .4%. Declines from March were seen in the Northeast, South and West and this drop takes the headline index to the lowest level since last May. The NAR did point out that the more modest priced homes in the Midwest is helping that region relative to the more expensive parts of …

[Read more...] about Pending home sales

Initial jobless claims fell to 406k, 20k less than expected and down from 444k last week. This marks the 3rd straight week below 500k and brings the 4 week average to 459k from 505k. Those filing for initial PUA was little changed at 94k from 95k last week. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 96k after rising by 98k in the week prior. At 3.64mm it is where …

[Read more...] about Claims data/Durable goods orders

Investors Intelligence yesterday said that the number of Bulls in its survey receded to 51.5 from 54.5 with all going to the Correction side again as Bears fell to 16.8 from 17.2. Assume this is as of Friday. As of last night, AAII today said Bulls were little changed on the week at 36.4 from 37 and Bears were up .1 pt to 26.4. Bottom line, complacency continues to …

[Read more...] about Sentiment/RRP usage explosion/Some data

After a pretty solid 2 yr note auction (tightly anchored by the fed funds rate expectations), today’s 5 yr was very good too. The yield of .788% was about ½ bp below the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.49 was better than the 12 month average of 2.40 and the highest since September. Lastly, direct and indirect bidders took a combined 79% of the auction, a touch …

[Read more...] about Another good auction

Adding to the debate on where all the needed labor supply is, the CEO of Hyatt Hotels yesterday afternoon on CNBC's Closing Bell said this, "We have seen increases in the number of applicants for jobs in states where the Governors and state legislatures have actually suspended the additional unemployment benefits that the federal government had mandated." We see …

[Read more...] about Labor supply/Bonds/RBNZ/”Entry level buyers are left in the dust”