The November Conference Board consumer confidence index was 135.7, exactly as expected but down 2.2 pts from October which was the best since 2000. The Present Situation did rise about 1 pt but was completely offset by a 4 pt drop in Expectations. One year inflation expectations rose one tenth to 4.9%, smack in line with the 5 year average. The answers to the jobs …
[Read more...] about Confidence slips but off best in 18 years
There was nothing in Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida’s speech today that is leaning towards any type of pause, particularly next month. He in fact talked out of both sides, “Raising rates too quickly could unnecessarily shorten the economic expansion, while moving too slowly could result in rising inflation and inflation expectations down the road that could be costly …
If nothing productive comes of the Trump Xi meeting at weeks end, I think it's fair to say that US tariffs on Chinese goods and the threat of more was not the effective tool its been made out to be in facilitating a trade deal out of the Chinese that would protect US technology most importantly (lowering our trade deficit with them is a nonsense goal). In other words, …
[Read more...] about Double down again or try something new?
Even with the possibility of a Fed hint at a pause after one more hike and the coincident change in market expectations for rate hikes next year, the 2 yr note auction was very mixed. The yield of 2.836% was spot on with the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.65 was below the one year average of 2.77 but direct and indirect bidders took a total of 65% of the auction, …
[Read more...] about 2 yr auction mixed but that’s an improvement
The Dallas manufacturing November index slowed to 17.6 from 29.4 and that was 7 pts less than expected. It’s also the weakest print since July 2017. Production, new orders, backlogs, delivery times, employment, the workweek, wages and capital spending plans all fell m/o/m. Capital spending in particular is the slowest since April 2017. Coincident with the decline in …
For markets and the short term direction (emphasis on 'short term'), it's pretty simple. With monetary policy, what will Vice Chair Rich Clarida say tomorrow and what will Powell discuss on Wednesday? With the real fed funds rate only back to zero, will they now buckle from their chosen path of achieving around a 3% fed funds rate sometime next year or will they …
Existing home sales in October, likely reflecting contract signings mostly in the July thru September time frame, totaled 5.22mm, a touch above the estimate of 5.2mm and up from 5.15mm in September. The m/o/m increase though is off the lowest level since November 2015. Reflecting the slowing pace of housing transactions, the 3 month average is 5.23mm vs the 6 month …
[Read more...] about Home sales and NAR joins Trump/Confidence
Non defense capital goods ex aircraft orders in October, a core measure of capital spending ex software spending, was unchanged, two tenths less than expected and September was revised down by 4 tenths to a decline of .5% and after August saw a drop of .2%. Thus, after a 1.5% jump in July, capital spending has fallen since. Bottom line, after listening to a bunch …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGS0qSHuias While US Treasuries rallied last week in response to the stock market selloff, the 94 point decline in the S&P 500 the past two days saw no rally in US Treasuries. Right now and stated here before, US Treasuries are just not the safe haven like they've been in the past. Something is different, whether it's too much …
Housing starts in October totaled 1.228mm, exactly as forecasted. September was revised a hair higher to 1.21mm, up 9k from the first print. Underneath, it was multi family starts that lifted the total figure m/o/m as they rose by 34k to 363k vs the 6 month average of 354k and 12 month average of 375k. Single family starts were down by 16k to a 3 month low at 865k …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
