Reflecting still that the US consumer is what's keeping the US economy together, July retail sales at the core level (ex auto's, gasoline and building materials), rose 1% m/o/m, 6 tenths more than expected and comes after a .7% gain in June. Sales gains were driven by online retailing, likely goosed by Amazon's prime day which lifted sales up by 2.8% m/o/m and 19% …
Tariffs/Data/Sentiment/US Housing
It was good to see some economic sense reverse the really bad idea of taxing incoming consumer goods just a few months before the holiday shopping season. If only everything can now be reversed because I've seen estimates that about $110b of consumer goods will still be subject to the 10% tariff rate. Hopefully the administration is finally realizing the limits of …
Now goods inflation?
There is no inflation? If one looks just at the PCE I guess. CPI for July rose .3% m/o/m both headline and core. The headline figure was as expected while the core rate was one tenth more. Versus last year the headline number rose 1.8% y/o/y and the core rate was higher by 2.2%. That core rate matches the most since July 2018. Services inflation ex energy, a …
A bunch of things
I listened to parts of Carrie Lam's press conference last night and to the most important question asked, she just wouldn't answer. I'm paraphrasing, "Why don't you just officially get rid of the extradition bill and are you doing the bidding of Beijing?" Until she does officially kill it, this will go on but I'm still of the belief that the protests die down on their …
Argentina peso
The Argentinian peso is crashing by around 20%. The Merval stock index is opening soon. …
Hong Kong/China/European banks/Argentina
For each day the Hong Kong protests continue the obvious worry is that the Chinese PLA walks into Hong Kong and then we have a mess on our hands. I'm going to guess instead that at least for a while, the Chinese will rely on covert activities and nothing more. Also, I'm going to venture a guess that officials both in Hong Kong and China are hopeful that when kids …
[Read more...] about Hong Kong/China/European banks/Argentina
Claims remain low
Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 6k less than expected and down from 217k last week (revised up by 2k). This brings the 4 week average to 212k which is unchanged with the week prior because a print of 208k dropped out. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 15k after rising by 22k last week. Bottom line, with all the worries about economic growth, …
As the yuan goes, so goes…
So waking up now entails looking first at where the yuan is, followed by where the 10 yr US yield is at and then one can predict where the S&P futures are. Yes, the yuan is up and the 10 yr yield is unchanged after yesterday's sharp reversal and the futures are rallying, along with overseas markets. At 9pm the yuan initially sold off after the fixing was above 7 …
European bank stocks
This is a chart of the Euro STOXX bank stock index, one that I’ve been showing you for a while to highlight the damage being done from negative interest rates. As seen we are the cusp of breaking to new lows with its 1.6% decline today and lower by 7% in the past 4 days. And how does one have a functioning economy when this is what happens to your banking system? Will …
The drop in yields is getting scary
After a 1.5% m/o/m decline in the June German industrial production figure vs the estimate of down .5% with declines widespread in manufacturing, mining, intermediate goods, capital goods, consumer goods and energy, German bund yields are sinking again and taking yields across the region with it. The y/o/y decline in IP of 5.2% is the 10th month in the past 11 and is …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.