Following the Fed rate hike, we saw hikes today from the BoE (50 bps as expected), the SNB (75 bps as expected), the Norges Bank (50 bps as expected), the Bank of Indonesia (50 bps vs 25 bps that was expected), the central bank in Taiwan (12.5 bps as expected), the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (75 bps as they match the Fed) and the BSP in the Philippines (50 bps as …
[Read more...] about A bunch more hikes today/Japan intervenes/Turkey cuts again
An analogy to the concept of ‘long and variable lags’ when it comes to monetary policy and the time it takes for it to fully filter through an economy is like taking a gummy (which I don’t do, so this is what I’ve heard) and having to wait up until an hour before you feel anything. But, some who don’t have experience with gummies end up taking another after 30 minutes …
[Read more...] about Is it like the delayed impact of a gummy?
The FOMC statement itself was rather dull in terms of being almost identical to the July statement. The only tweak was on the economy where they started by saying “Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production” vs “Recent indicators of spending and production have softened” said in July. What got the markets moving was the median dot plot of …
[Read more...] about Tack on another 25 bps, entering the ‘Danger Zone’
Existing home sales totaled 4.80mm in August, 100k more than expected but is down slightly from the 4.82mm seen in July and the lowest since May 2020. Assume many of these closings saw contracts signed in the April thru July timeframe. After jumping in July, the number of homes for sale fell a touch but months’ supply was unchanged at 3.2. That is double the record …
We'll soon see if Jay Powell again expresses his inner Mr. T when it comes to fighting inflation, //www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=ZRLBbXYWLbs. ABM Industries, a stock we own, is always a great proxy for the state of the labor market as they are a labor intensive business with about 125,000 as of their last 10K and labor costs at about 2/3 of …
Housing starts in August totaled 1.575mm annualized, 125k more than expected and up from 1.404mm in July which was revised down by 42k and which compares with the same level of 1.575mm seen in June. Most of the upside was in the multi family category where starts jumped by 140k m/o/m to 640k and that is the most since 1986. Single family starts were 935k vs 904k in …
So, Ford reminding us all that product procurement in a timely fashion is still a problem, and it's not just semi's. In yesterday's National Association of Manufacturers Q3 Outlook Survey, the CEO of the organization said "Three out of four manufacturers still have a positive outlook for their businesses, but optimism has certainly declined. The majority of …
[Read more...] about Manufacturing challenges/Home prices/Riksbank, yields/Japan CPI
The September NAHB home builder sentiment survey saw its index fall another 3 pts m/o/m to 46 after dropping by 6 pts in August, 12 in July and in the 6 months prior. It’s now declined each month this year not surprisingly considering the steep rise in mortgage rates on top of the sharp home price increases. The estimate was 47. Present conditions fell 3 pts to 54 …
We know we were just on the cusp of a major union rail strike in addition to other strikes in other industries we've heard about in the last few weeks. To quantify the number, I learned in the WSJ over the weekend that Cornell University has a 'Labor Action Tracker' that measures the number of strikes nationally. From January 1st, 2021 thru September 16th, 2021 there …
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 14k below expectations and vs 218k last week which was revised down by 4k. The 4k week average fell to 224k from 232k and that’s the lowest since mid June. Continuing claims were 1.403mm, well under the estimate of 75k and last week was revised down by 72k to 1.401mm. 2)The August Cass Freight Transportation Index …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/16
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
