The pace of firing’s continues to fall which makes a lot of sense when there are so many job openings. Initial claims totaled 310k, 25k less than expected and down 35k from last week. This brings the 4 week average down to 340k from 356k. Those initially filing for PUA fell to 96k from 103k. Continuing claims, right before the extended kind fully expires, were …
[Read more...] about Initial claims take another leg lower/ECB
Yesterday II said Bulls rose .5 pt w/o/w to 52.6 while Bears fell .2 pts to 21.1 after jumping over 20 last week. Today AAII said Bulls fell 4.5 pts to 38.9 after rising by 10.2 in the two prior weeks but all of them went to the Neutral side, or we can call it the "I don't know" crowd. Bears fell too, by 6.1 pts to 27.2 and that is the least since July 29th with all …
In the Fed’s just released Beige Book, they said “Economic growth downshifted to a moderate pace in early July thru August. They highlighted some strong sectors like manufacturing, transportation, nonfinancial services and residential real estate. They cited the “deceleration” in “dining out, travel and tourism in most Districts, reflecting safety concerns due to the …
For the 2nd month in a row the 10 yr note auction was solid. The yield of 1.338% was below the when issued level of around 1.35%. The bid to cover of 2.59 was above the 12 month average of 2.42. Also, direct and indirect bidders took 88% of the auction, well better than the one yr average of 78%. Bottom line, if bonds could speak. Is this aggressive demand because …
Blame it on Delta but I’ll again blame it on the difficulty in filling job openings. In July, so yes somewhat dated, there were 10.9mm job openings, a fresh record high. At the same time, hiring’s fell by 160k, although after a 850k increase in June and vs 10k in May. Layoffs picked up by 105k but very well could have been related to the work stoppages that many …
[Read more...] about Another record amount of job openings in July
I felt it important to post these stagflationary comments from Sherwin Williams which just lowered guidance: "We continue to see strong demand across the pro architectural and industrial end markets we serve. However, persistent and industry-wide raw material availability issues have not improved as anticipated, impacting our ability to fully meet the strong …
Great news on the vaccine front as yesterday saw 1.5mm doses administered in the US, the largest one day amount since July 1st. With the next FOMC statement and press conference two weeks from now, today's economic outlook speech from the NY Fed head and part of the Fed troika of importance John Williams would be a perfect opportunity to lay the groundwork on what …
I'm just not buying the belief on the part of some that Friday's big jobs miss was predominantly due to Delta. The front page of the weekend FT said "US Employment Growth Slows Sharply as Delta Variant Ravages Hiring Plans." The NY Times said "Hiring Rate Slows as Grip of Variant Hinders Recovery." The WSJ front page said "Delta Variant Throttles Job Growth" but at …
[Read more...] about ‘Jump around! Jump up, jump up and get down!’
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 340k from 354k last week and that was 5k less than expected. Those filing for PUA dropped by 14k w/o/w to a 4 week low. Delayed by a week, continuing claims declined to 2.75mm which is the lowest since March 2020 from an upwardly revised 2.91mm last week. Delayed by two weeks, those still getting PUA jumped by 408k to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/3
The August ISM services index fell to 61.7 from 64.1 as expected. The six month average is 62.7. Notwithstanding the slowdown in hiring seen in the BLS report because of the lack of workers, the employment component in today’s ISM was little changed at 53.7 vs 53.8 in July. New orders fell .5 pt m/o/m at 63.2, just below the 6 month average of 63.9. Backlogs remained …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
