Yesterday we saw the bull sentiment get extreme in the 'professional' community as measured by Investors Intelligence. Today we see the individual investor sentiment has gotten extreme too. Bulls jumped 11.1 pts w/o/w to 56.9. The is the highest since the 1st week of 2018. Bears fell to the lowest since April 2019 at 20.4, down 2.8 pts w/o/w. The spread between the …
[Read more...] about Bull boat full again/Supply crunches/Some data
The FOMC minutes from the meeting three weeks ago was uneventful in terms of delivering new news, especially after hearing from a slew of members over this time frame, including today. We know that even though the economy will ‘normalize’ with the continued increase in inoculation, the Fed will not be normalizing policy anytime soon. The policy of lower for …
[Read more...] about The Fed minutes and the bifurcation between big and small
Investors Intelligence said today that its survey of ‘professional’ investors saw Bulls recapture the 60 level again at 60.8 up from 54.4 last week. Bears fell further, now at 16.7 from 17.5. As I’ve said many times before, a read above 60 is considered extreme as is a spread greater than 40 vs the bears. This is not a market call as bulls can stay above 60 for weeks …
After hearing from Fed President Mester Monday and Kaplan today with Evans and Barkin also speaking today, there is still no direct commentary from them on the red hot US housing market. In fact, what we've heard so far is that the economy still needs the same level of policy accommodation which implies that Mester and Kaplan wants to continue to throw gasoline on the …
Yes, we are still 8.5mm people below the number of employed workers in February 2020 but as of February 2021 there are 7.4mm job openings up from 7.1mm in January and 6.75mm in December and now above the 7mm in February 2020 and 7.15mm in January 2020. In fact, this is the most amount of job openings since January 2019. Relative to January, more jobs are needed …
As measured by Caixin, China's private sector service sector index for March gained 2.8 pts m/o/m to 54.3. That was better than the estimate of 52.1. Caixin said "The Covid flare ups that occurred in the fall and the winter have basically died down, and the services sector has quickly recovered with supply and demand expanding. Compared with strong domestic demand, …
The March ISM services index rose to 63.7 from 55.3 and that was well above the estimate of 59. This is the highest on record dating back to 1997. New orders spiked by 15.3 pts to 67.2 but backlogs fell by 5 pts to 50.2. Because of the difficulty of getting product, one has to wonder how much of the new order jump is now double ordering as with the drop in backlogs. …
The most notable moves in Treasuries that took place on Friday in response to the upside surprise in payrolls was that on the short end. The 2 yr note yield is now at the highest since June 2020 at almost .19%. The 5 yr yield jumped almost 8 bps on Friday and after a 1 bp drop today is at .97%, a level last seen in February 2020. What we are now seeing is market …
Positives 1). The BLS said 916k jobs were added in March, well above the estimate of 660k and the two prior months were revised up by a total of 156k. A big pick up in government hiring, education related as schools reopened, was a key reason. The private sector contributed 780k of the jobs vs the estimate of 643k. The household survey saw a job add of 609k …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/2
The BLS said 916k jobs were added in March, well above the estimate of 660k and the two prior months were revised up by a total of 156k. A big pick up in government hiring, education related as schools reopened, was a key reason. The private sector contributed 780k of the jobs vs the estimate of 643k. The household survey saw a job add of 609k and when combined with …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
