With not much having changed in the economy and visibility no better since the last FOMC meeting, we shouldn't expect anything new today. What I'm in search of from this Fed is if they think there is any speed limit to what they're doing. Printing money and buying assets and cutting rates to zero is the global central bank response from those central banks that …
Consumer Confidence mixed/Mfr’g
The July Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell to 92.6 from 98.3 and that was below the estimate of 95 but compares with 85.9 in May. For perspective, this index peaked in this cycle in October 2018 at 137.9. The components were very mixed as the Present Situation improved to 94.2 from 86.7 but was more than offset by the sharp drop in Expectations which …
A few thoughts
I think from the perspective of the markets, the only thing they care about with respect to what comes out of DC is what the added jobless benefit will be. The bid and offer seems $200-$600 with somewhere in the middle likely where it ends up. Either way, it will be lower than what was where the University of Chicago estimated that 68% of those receiving benefits were …
Durable goods orders
After three straight months of declines with most of the pain in April, core durable goods spending rose for a 2nd month, this time by 3.3% after a 1.7% m/o/m rebound in May. That was above the estimate of up 2.2%. As seen in the chart below, we’ve gotten about half of what was lost. As auto factories continued to reopen, vehicle/parts orders spiked by 86% m/o/m …
“Do you think gold is money?”
With the continued weakness in the dollar (DXY at 2 yr low), fall in real rates, rise in inflation expectations and jump in gold and silver, this combination has a stagflationary environment written all over it. The stag part is already here and I continue to expect the flation side in 2021. We'll see what, if anything, Jay Powell is asked about any one of this on …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/24
Positives 1)June new home sales totaled 776k, 76k more than expected and up from 682k in May (revised a touch higher from 676k). All four regions saw increases with the biggest percentage happening in the Northeast (many leaving NYC?). Months' supply fell to 4.7, the lowest since 2016 as builders now need to scramble to catch up. This led to a 5.6% y/o/y …
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US mfr’g, services and housing data
The Markit July manufacturing and services composite index rose to exactly 50 from 47.9 with modest m/o/m gains in manufacturing and services. Services remained below 50 at 49.6 vs 47.9 in June. The estimate was 51. Manufacturing rose 1.5 pts m/o/m to 51.3, a touch below the forecast of 52. With services, "Although the pace of decrease in business activity …
A few things
What we've seen so far in earnings from tech and the stock reactions is that just maybe the earnings bar was just too high considering the run these stocks have had going into the reports. Microsoft, Netflix, Citrix Systems, Texas Instruments and Intel are the examples for now. Ahead of the US figure at 9:45am from Markit we saw today some July PMI's from overseas …
Claims data
Initial claims totaled 1.42mm, above the estimate of 1.30mm and vs 1.31mm in the week prior. This is the 1st w/o/w uptick since March and likely coincides with reclosings that we’re seeing along with businesses that are painfully throwing in the towel in the leisure and hospitality sector. Not seasonally adjusted, those filing under the Pandemic Unemployment …
Play Ball
Let's be clear, the most important thing of the day is that it's opening day for Major League Baseball. It's of course not ideal with no fans and an abbreviated season but whether a fan or not we should all be hoping they can make it thru without disruption. While the 'professional' investor is extremely bullish as measured by the II data and the Citi …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.