Voting Fed member Eric Rosengren in an interview on Bloomberg still doesn’t sound like someone who wants to cut rates. He acknowledged the weakness in fixed investment, manufacturing and trade, especially in light of the trade fight but seems confident that the US consumer has been and will be enough to offset this. That said, he’s paying close attention to the US …
[Read more...] about Rosengren sounds like a dissent again, maybe
No issues in yesterday's Hong Kong protests that was mostly calm helped to lift the Hang Seng by 2.2%. Peaceful protests are likely now very much on purpose because it would make it even less likely that China rolls in which they know would be a disaster for Hong Kong. The rest of Asia was green as well. With respect to China and the fight we have with them, we …
European bonds are selling off and US Treasuries are in sympathy on the story that hit the tape that German would initiate a deficit spending stimulus plan if they were to go into a recession, reported by Der Spiegel. The German 10 yr yield is up 5 bps to -.67% and the US 10 yr is at the high of the day at 1.59%, 6 bps above the 2 yr in response. I’ll say for the …
The UoM consumer confidence index took a hit in August as it fell to 92.1 from 98.4 and that was below the estimate of 97. It’s also the lowest since January and as seen in the chart below, it’s no higher than it was in late 2014. Most of the decline was in the Expectations component which fell 8.2 pts while current conditions were down by 3.3 pts. The positive …
[Read more...] about Tariffs and the rate CUT hit confidence (with charts)
The UoM consumer confidence index took a hit in August as it fell to 92.1 from 98.4 and that was below the estimate of 97. It’s also the lowest since January and as seen in the chart below, it’s no higher than it was in late 2014. Most of the decline was in the Expectations component which fell 8.2 pts while current conditions were down by 3.3 pts. The positive …
[Read more...] about Tariffs and the rate CUT hit confidence
The July Cass Freights shipping index fell 5.9% y/o/y and that now marks the 8th month in a row of declines. That manufacturing weakness was inevitably going to hit the industry that has to take all these goods around. Cass Freight said in its release, “we repeat our message from last two months: the shipments index has gone from ‘warning of a potential slowdown’ to …
Housing starts in July totaled 1.191mm, well less than the estimate of 1.256mm and June was revised lower by 12k to 1.241mm. The m/o/m decline was all in the multi family sector as single family starts did rise by 11k from June. Multi family also mostly drove the permit side but to the upside as they jumped by 89k m/o/m but only after an 80k drop in June. Single …
The default reaction of most central bankers is to 'do something.' It's why every time growth slows their natural response is to cut rates irrespective of any discussion whether they think it will work or not. That of course is in now in full swing with just the extent and pace seemingly in question globally. I'm not sure who said or started the conversation on it …
On the ECB Oli Rehn comments that the ECB is coming with big guns in September (even though they’ll have blanks), European yields are collapsing further and thus taking its financial system with it. The German 10 yr yield is now -.70% and the 30 yr yield is falling 7 bps to -.26%. German insurance companies are loving this! The Spanish 10 yr is approaching zero at …
Before I get to the IP data for July and the NAHB figure for August I just want to say this about the August manufacturing data we saw this morning from the NY and Philly Fed’s. With the consumer product tariff tweet on August 1st, we have to assume it left everyone scrambling to procure products as quickly as possible ahead of implementation. Not that one month would …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
