ADP said the private sector added just 106k jobs in January, well below the estimate of 180k and that is the slowest monthly job gain since October 2019 if we don’t use the Covid timeframe. The service sector added 109k with gains again in leisure/hospitality leading the way. The ‘trade/transportation/utilities’ group lost 41k jobs. The goods producing sector saw a …
More earnings anecdotes/Eurozone CPI/Other
I’m going to include here more company comments from the quarterly calls. If there is one underlying theme apparent, economic activity is modest, with some more optimistic than others, with macro challenges clear, confirming the hard data that we’ve seen, and companies are doing their best to both acknowledge that and laying out how they will maneuver thru. I will say …
[Read more...] about More earnings anecdotes/Eurozone CPI/Other
Mfr’g in recession/Home prices moderate/Consumer Confidence
The Chicago region joins all the others in saying its manufacturing sector continues to contract in January as its PMI printed 44.3, its 5th month in a row below 50. I don’t have any details as the press release hasn’t hit their website yet. Chicago PMI S&P CoreLogic said its November home price index saw further slowing to a 7.7% y/o/y price increase vs …
[Read more...] about Mfr’g in recession/Home prices moderate/Consumer Confidence
Labor costs in Q4
The Employment Cost Index for Q4 rose 1% q/o/q and that was one tenth below the estimate. The private sector component is most important here and the q/o/q rise in wages and salaries was 1% vs 1.2% in Q3, 1.6% in Q2 and 1.3% in Q1. It finished 2021 at 1.1%. Versus last year, private sector wages and salaries were higher by 5.1%, the same pace seen in September. As for …
Let’s read what they have to say/Other
While yesterday's January Dallas manufacturing index was better than feared at -8.4 vs the estimate of -15, it still marks the 9th straight month below zero and follows contractions seen in the regional surveys from NY, Philly, Richmond and KC. Chicago reports today and we get the national ISM tomorrow which is expected to be below 50 for a 3rd straight …
David Wooderson is not going back to high school
Watching the market rally, both stocks and bonds, this month is not surprising in that the two major pain points of 2022, that being 40 yr highs in inflation and the most aggressive monetary policy response in 40 years, are easing up. Inflation is rolling over and the Fed is almost done hiking rates. Also, China is opening up again as we know. That said, the …
[Read more...] about David Wooderson is not going back to high school
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: Positives, 1)Initial jobless claims fell again to just 186k, 19k less than expected and vs 192k in the week before. The 4k week average is back below 200k at 198k, the lowest since May 2022. Continuing claims rose by 20k to 1.675mm. 2)Pending home sales in December rose 2.5% m/o/m instead of falling by 1% as forecasted …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Home sales/Consumer confidence
Pending home sales in December rose 2.5% m/o/m instead of falling by 1% as forecasted and November was revised slightly higher to a less weak print. That is just the 2nd m/o/m increase dating back to October 2021 for reasons we all are well aware of. A bounceback in contract signings in the South and West offset weakness in the Northeast and a slight drop in the …
Inflation, income, spending, oh my
December headline PCE rose one tenth m/o/m and 3 tenths core with the former one tenth more than expected and the latter in line with the estimate. The y/o/y gains were 5% headline and 4.4% core. Goods prices were up 4.6% y/o/y, a continued slowdown for a 6th straight month. Services inflation was unchanged from the November print of up 5.2%. For those that eat, food …
I now like PCE instead/Earnings comments/Don’t stop watching JGB’s
My readers know I've always preferred the CPI over the PCE, in contrast to the Fed, in giving a more accurate measure of inflation because of the higher allocation to housing that matches reality and healthcare costs that are not price fixed by Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates. Well, for the next 12 months that is going in reverse because of what the BLS …
[Read more...] about I now like PCE instead/Earnings comments/Don’t stop watching JGB’s
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.