Much is being made of the weekend story from Bloomberg News that China is honing in on only a limited deal in coming days. As I believe that the most important thing we can get out of China is the protection of our technology, and that is supposedly a part of a limited deal, I'm ok with that. I also believe that the administration will do anything they can not to have …
[Read more...] about It’s time to buy stock in shovel makers
Positives 1).Payrolls in September grew by 136k, 9k less than expected but the two prior months were revised up by a net 45k. The private sector added 114k jobs vs the estimate of 130k and the two prior months were revised up by 17k. Thus, we can call the private sector data pretty much as expected when stretching out over 3 months, but averaging just 119k. It …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/4
Payrolls in September grew by 136k, 9k less than expected but the two prior months were revised up by a net 45k. Taking out the influence of the government and census workers, the private sector added 114k jobs vs the estimate of 130k and the two prior months were revised up by 17k. Thus, we can call the private sector data pretty much as expected when stretching out …
Marred by the protests, Hong Kong's September PMI remained well below 50 but at 41.5 is up slightly from the 40.8 print in August. Tourism and retail are of course the most impacted and Markit equates this currently level of activity with a contraction of about 3% in Q3 at an annualized rate. Looking forward, "Business expectations about the year ahead outlook sank to …
The September ISM services index fell to 52.6 from 56.4 in August. That is 2.4 pts below the estimate of 55 and the lowest print since August 2016 when we saw the last manufacturing/services adjustment on the heels of the decline in oil prices. New orders fell 6.6 pts to 53.7, also the weakest since 2016. Backlogs though rebounded from 49 to 54 but about back to …
[Read more...] about ISM services, the fundamentals now matter
Initial jobless claims totaled 219k, 4k more than expected and up from 215k last week (revised up by 2k). Because a 219k print came in and a 219k print came out, the 4 week average stayed at 213k. For perspective, claims have averaged 218k over the past 12 months. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 5k. Bottom line, claims still remain low as the initial …
[Read more...] about Claims now the most important thing to watch
Yesterday, we saw little change in the bullishness on the part of 'professionals' according to Investors Intelligence with Bulls actually rising to 55.3 from 55.1 while Bears were up slightly too at 17.1. Anything 55 or higher is stretched. Likely this captured sentiment as of last Thursday/Friday when the SPX was around 3000. Today's AAII index of individual thoughts …
ADP said in September that a net 135k private sector jobs were created, 5k less than expected and of note, August was revised down by 38k to 157k. Breaking this out saw an 8k job increase in the goods producing side with construction making up 9k, manufacturing 2k and offset by a decline in the number of those working in natural resources/mining. With …
After yesterday's jump in longer term Japanese JGB yields, they are falling back by about 1 bp. This is going to be a really interesting situation going forward as again we have a central bank after about 20 years of easing that finally realizes that having a yield curve and a functioning banking system is an important foundation for economic growth. Too bad it took a …
The September ISM manufacturing index fell further into contraction at 47.8 vs 49.1 in August and below the estimate of exactly 50. That is the weakest print since June 2009. New orders were little changed but still below 50 at 47.3. Backlogs fell 1.2 pts to 45.1 and that is the 5th time in a row it’s been below 50. The weakness in business was most obvious within …
[Read more...] about We’ve tariffed our way into a mfr’g recession
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
