Q3 GDP number releases have begun. South Korea, a tech and export bellwether, said its economy grew by 1.9% q/o/q, better than the estimate of up 1.3% although the y/o/y print was still down by 1.3% but better than the forecast of lower by 1.8%. A sharp pick up in tech exports from Q2 in particular helped the economy with total exports higher by 16% q/o/q. As the …
[Read more...] about Q3 GDP time & some other things overseas
New home sales in September totaled 959k, about 65k less than expected and August was revised down by 17k to 994k. Either way, these are the highest monthly level of sales since 2006. Months’ supply did tick higher to 3.6 from 3.4 but is historically still very low as the 20 average is 5.8. The median home price rose 3.5% y/o/y but this bounces around a lot each month …
In watching the Sunday political talk shows all we heard was that Mnuchin was going to get back to Pelosi today with possibly a counteroffer but certainly no sense that we are any closer to some fiscal deal before the election. Combine that with the Covid spread inflecting up again and we have what we have this morning. I'm less worried about the sharp pick up in the …
Positives 1)Existing home sales in September totaled 6.54mm, above the estimate of 6.3mm and up from 5.98mm in August. That is the most since May 2006 with a rise m/o/m in all 4 regions. With the decline in the number of homes for sale, months’ supply fell to just 2.7 from 3.0, the lowest in data going back to 1999. The median home price was up 14.8% to a new …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/23
The October US manufacturing and services composite PMI rose 1.2 pts m/o/m to 55.5 with services leading the way with its 1.4 pt increase to 56 while manufacturing was little changed at 53.3 vs 53.2. The headline index matches the best level since July 2018 but remember is only measuring the direction of improvement, not the degree. With services Markit said “The …
As my readers know, I've pointed out the importance of watching the 30 yr Treasury bond as the best messenger of market signaling since it's furthest out on the curve away from Fed manipulation. Yesterday, the implied inflation rate in the 30 yr TIPS rose for the 6th straight day by 2 bps to 1.89%, the highest level since May 2019. Central bankers are going to have …
As seen in this chart of the 10 yr Treasury yield, you can see we are approaching the 200 day moving average of .87%. If we trade above it, it would be the 1st time since December 2018 that we did. I know many will say that rates are still so low, which of course they are, but it’s the rate of change that should now be a focus. The 30 yr yield is already thru its 200 …
Existing home sales in September, likely reflecting most contract signings in the June thru August time frame, totaled 6.54mm, above the estimate of 6.3mm and up from 5.98mm in August. That is the most since May 2006 with a rise m/o/m in all 4 regions. With the decline in the number of homes for sale, months’ supply fell to just 2.7 from 3.0, the lowest in data going …
Initial jobless claims fell to 787k from 842k last week (revised from 898k) and that is well below the estimate of 870k. Also positively, continuing claims fell to 8.37mm from 10mm and that was less than the forecast of 9.63mm. Helping to explain the large deviation from the estimate and last week’s revision is due to California which after weeks of only estimating …
[Read more...] about Claims data, CA finally gives actual #s
Yesterday Investors Intelligence said Bulls rose to 59.2 from 56.6 while Bears fell to 20.4 from 21.2 and I would consider this just shy of very stretched. Bulls above 60 are extreme so we are just about there but mid teens in Bears is their version of extreme. Either way, a spread of almost 40 is a red flag in the short term from a contrarian perspective. With …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
