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Positives 1)The January Philly index rose to 23.2 from 15.4 and that was 4 pts better than expected. Looking at the coming 6 months, the business outlook got back what it lost last month. Inflation expectations grew further. For prices paid, the outlook jumped by 22.6 pts to the highest since 1988. For those received, expectations rose 7.7 pts to a 5 month high. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/21

Positives 1)Delayed by a week and likely distorted by the holidays, continuing claims fell to 1.56mm, well less than the estimate of 1.733mm and down from 1.753mm in the week prior. 2)Cass Freight said its shipments index for December rose 7.7% y/o/y after a 4.5% growth rate in November while little changed m/o/m. It did though rise 4.2% from November when they …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/14

Positives 1)The household survey in the BLS payroll data said 651k jobs were added after 1.1mm in November. Combine this with a rise of 168k in the labor force and the unemployment rate now has a 3 handle at 3.9%. This compares with 3.5% in February 2020. The all inclusive U6 rate dropped 4 tenths to 7.3% and this was 7% in February 2020. Average hourly hours …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/7

Positives 1)While still adding to their balance sheet, while not getting around to raising interest rates, which is the most direct tool in containing inflation, until maybe March at the earliest, the Fed has finally woken up to the high inflation that they have contributed to and now preside over. 2)This week we saw rate hikes from the Bank of England, Norges …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/17

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell back below 200k at 184k and there is no seasonal adjustments around a holiday to blame. That is down from 227k last week. The 4 week average fell to 219k from 240k and that compares with 210k at the end of January 2020. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose by 38k after 3 weeks of declines in November which totaled 255k. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/10

Positives 1)The household survey in stark contrast to the BLS establishment survey saw a large 1.136mm job gain and combined with the increase in the labor force of 594k, the unemployment rate fell 4 tenths m/o/m to just 4.2% vs 4.4% in March 2020 and 3.5% in the two months before that. The U6 rate declined by 5 tenths to 7.8% vs 8.8% in March 2020 and 7% in …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/3

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to just 199k, well below the estimate of 260k and down from 268k last week. That's the lowest print since the summer of 1969. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by another 60k to a fresh post Covid low at 2.049mm. 2)Personal income in October rose .5% m/o/m, 3 tenths more than expected. Specifically looking at …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/26

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 268k, 8k more than expected and after a print of 269k last week. This though brings the 4 week average down to 273k from 279k, a post Covid low. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 129k to 2.08mm, also a new post Covid low. 2)Core retail sales in October rose by 1.6% m/o/m, above the estimate of up .9% partly …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/19

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to a fresh post Covid low at 267k and lower w/o/w for the 6th straight week. That though was 7k more than expected. 2)The 8 bps drop in mortgage rates and 14 bps over the past 2 weeks helped to lift mortgage applications. Purchases rose 2.7% w/o/w but remain down by 4.1% y/o/y on tough comps and a moderating pace of …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/12