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Succinct Summation of the week’s events – 8/2

Positives 1)The Federal Reserve is responding the only way they know how, to ease policy at the prospect of an economic slowdown, this time due to 'global developments.' Separately, It is the rare central banker that cites financial markets and the desire not to spike the punch bowl for not wanting to cut rates. Quite refreshing to hear. Boston Fed President said …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/26

Positives 1)GDP in Q2 surprised to the upside with a 2.1% performance. The estimate was 1.8% and this brings the year to date average to 2.6%. The 2018 growth rate was revised down to 2.5% (4th Q over 4th Q) as part of benchmark revisions. Personal spending was the main catalyst as it grew by 4.3%, 3 tenths more than expected after a modest 1.1% gain in Q1. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/19

Positives 1)Core retail sales in June exceeded expectations with a .7% m/o/m increase, more than twice the estimate of up .3% and May was revised up one tenth to a gain of .6%. Versus last year, core sales improved to a 4.6% y/o/y increase. 2)The July Philly manufacturing index saw a sharp snapback, rising to 21.8 from .3 and that was well above the estimate of 5.0. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/12

Positives 1)I’m sympathetic to Powell’s belief that growth is moderating and he wants to take back that December hike. 2)Initial jobless claims totaled 209k, 12k less than expected vs 222k last week. However because of the 4th of July holiday we can throw out the number and wait until next week to average it out. 3)The MBA said mortgage applications to buy a …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/5

Positives 1)I wish Christine Lagarde the best of luck and hope she can be politically influential in stressing and encouraging governments to emphasize more fiscal policy and rely less on monetary policy. 2)Of the new Trump picks for the Fed and if appointed, Judy Shelton will be a breath of fresh air in introducing a new frame of monetary thought. Chris Waller …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/28

  Positives 1)Pending home sales in May, measuring contracts signed of existing homes, rose 1.1% m/o/m as expected. Sales in the Northeast rebounded by 3.5% after 3 straight months of declines. Sales also were up in the Midwest but flat down South and lower out West. 2)Refi’s still are responding the most to the drop in mortgage rates as they grew by …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/21

Positives 1) The Fed validated the pricing in the bond market that rate hikes are likely coming in response to mostly the manufacturing slowdown and weakness in overseas economies. They are trying to get ahead of any more pronounced slowdown and broader spillover to the services sector which has just begun. 2) Negotiations are back on with China and it’s been …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/14

Positives 1) The Administration pulled back from its everything tariff threat on Mexico. 2) Core retail sales in May beat the estimate by one tenth with a .5% m/o/m rise but it was actually better than that as April was revised up by 4 tenths. The y/o/y gain of 3.4% compares with the 5 yr average of 3.7% and helped by online retailing and sales at restaurants …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/7

Positives 1) The May ISM services PMI surprised to the upside, rising 1.4 pts to 56.9 from April. The estimate was a slight drop to 55.4 and the print is about spot on with the year to date average of 57. The components though were more mixed. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 16 saw growth vs 15 in April, 16 in March and 18 in February. Of those seeing an increase in …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/31

Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 215k, about in line with the forecast of 214k and vs 212k last week (revised up by 1k). The 4 week average is now 217k vs 221k last week as a 230k print drops out. For perspective, the 217k average is about the same as the one year average of 218k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 26k to just above the lowest …

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