If you were wondering what was the cause of the stabilization in the Chinese PMI's last week for March, the loan data reported today was literally off the charts. Aggregate financing totaled 2.86 Trillion yuan, well more than the estimate of 1.85 Trillion. Of this, bank loans increased by 1.69 Trillion, 440b more than expected. To smooth out the January/February Lunar …
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The Fed pats itself on the back for rally in stocks
Sorry for the late review of the FOMC minutes which is the Fed’s 2nd chance of communicating a message to the market outside of the official statement and Powell press conference. Don’t mistaken these ‘minutes’ as actual minutes of what was said verbatim. Here are a few relevant points outside of the typical commentary on growth, the labor market and …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/5
Positives 1) March payrolls grew by 196k, 19k more than expected while the two prior months were revised up by 14k. The private sector component though had less of an upside print as jobs here rose by 182k, 5k more than expected. The household survey saw a loss of 201k jobs after a gain of 255k in the month prior. Because the labor force shrunk by 224k, the …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/29
Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 211k, 9k less than expected and last week was revised down by 5k to 216k (as part of annual revisions). This downtick brings the 4 week average lower to 217k from 221k last week and that’s the lowest since mid January. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 13k after a similar drop in the week prior. 2) The MBA …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/22
Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 221k, 4k less than expected and down from 230k last week (revised up by 1k). This brings the 4 week average to 225k, up 1k because a 217k print falls out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 27k after rising by 19k last week. 2) The March Philly manufacturing index rose to 13.7 after going …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/15
Positives 1) January new home sales totaled 607k, 15k less than expected but December was revised up by 31k to 652k and which followed below 600k prints in the two prior months. Smoothing out this volatile number puts the 3 month average at 619k vs the 6 month average of 603k and the 12 month average of 621k. The average in 2017 was 616k. Months' supply rose to …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/8
Positives 1) Within the payroll number, average hourly earnings grew by .4% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and higher by 3.4% y/o/y, the best since 2009. Average hourly earnings though were up just .1% m/o/m as hours worked fell. The y/o/y increase was 3.1%. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 223k, 2k less than expected while last week was revised up by 1k …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/1
Positives 1) It does seem like the US and China are wrapping up the final details of a trade deal that has real substance to it. Question remains though, what happens with the tariffs currently in place. 2) The US economy grew by 2.6% q/o/q annualized in Q4 and that was 4 tenths more than expected. On a y/o/y basis, growth was up by 3.1%. The gain was led by …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/22
Positives 1) The February NAHB home builder index surprised to the upside with a print of 62, 3 pts better and up 4 pts from January. The 6 pt combined gain in January and February follows the 12 pt drop in November and December. The Present Situation rose 3 pts m/o/m and is back to where it was in November at 67. Expectations jumped by 5 pts to 68 and is 3 pts …
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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/15
Positives 1) The government will not partially close again this time around. 2) Headline PPI in January was one tenth less than expected when including a revision to December. The core rate though was up .2% m/o/m as expected and 2.6% y/o/y. Trade costs jumped by .8% and transportation/warehousing was higher by .5%. 3) In December, there were 7.3mm job openings, a …
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Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.