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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/9

Positives 1)The August ISM services PMI rose a touch to 56.9 from 56.7 in July and that was above the estimate of 55.3. That puts it about in line with the average year to date of 57.1 and it is the exact same level where it stood in February 2020. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 14 saw growth vs 13 in July, 18 in June and 14 in May. The ISM said “Growth continues, …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/2

Positives 1)Within the jobs report, the household survey saw a job gain of 442k and a large jump in the size of the labor force of 786k which resulted in a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% but for good reason. The U6 survey, also including discouraged workers and those working part time but want full time, rose 3 tenths to 7%. Also of note, ‘job leavers’ as a …

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New Podcast: My interview with Doug Cifu of Virtu Financial

I recently sat down with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan of the On The Tape Podcast where we discussed the market's game of chicken with the Fed. Inside you'll also find my longer interview with Doug Cifu of Virtu Financial where we discuss his business, market structure, execution quality and even the Florida Panthers. I hope you enjoy: On this bonus episode of “On …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/19

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 250k, 14k less than expected and last week was revised down by 10k. The 4 week average fell to 247k from 250k last week and vs 248k in the week before. Continuing claims moderated to 1.437mm from 1.455m in the week before. 2)Core retail sales in July exceeded expectations with an .8% m/o/m gain in nominal terms, two …

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Reads like a white paper on stagflation

When it comes to the FOMC minutes, I always just immediately scroll down to the section titled “Participants’ Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook” and skip the staff discussion. After reading the first few paragraphs on the economy, one would think the Fed was ready to cut interest rates until the discussion on inflation begins and then we’re woken …

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Ugly report

The August NY manufacturing index collapsed to -31.3 from +11.1 and well worse than the estimate of +5. That’s the weakest since May 2020 when it was at -48.5. New orders went from +6.2 to -29.6. Shipments dropped by almost 50 pts m/o/m to -24.1. Backlogs fell further below zero at -12.7, its 3rd straight month under. Inventories were down by 8 pts. Employment dropped …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/12

Positives 1)Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though …

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CPI relief

Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though still up 33% …

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