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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/24

Positives 1)New home sales in May jumped to 696k, about 100k more than anticipated and April was revised up by 38k to 629k. The mix really stood out as there were sharp drops in the Northeast and Midwest m/o/m offset by jumps in the South and out West. The number of homes for sale rose but not to the same extent as sales and months’ supply fell to 7.7 from …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/17

Positives 1)The Fed, BoE, SNB, and central banks in Brazil and Taiwan all raise interest rates in an attempt to not just cool inflation but to regain their credibility (Brazil at least has one with their aggressive response to inflation). The ECB temporarily calms down the yield widening between German, France and the others. This as they are still doing QE for a …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/10

Positives 1)The US trade deficit in April narrowed to $87.1b from $107.7b in March which was a record high. Exports rose by 3.5% while imports fell by 3.4%. 2)After seeing a 1.3% increase in April from March, producer prices in Japan were unchanged m/o/m in May. That was below the estimate of up .6% but the y/o/y gain was still 9.1% vs 9.8% in the month before. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/27

Positives 1)Headline PCE in April rose .2% m/o/m and 6.3% y/o/y. As for the core rate, it was up .3% m/o/m and 4.9% y/o/y. All in line with expectations and the rate of change is slowly moderating as should have been also fully expected especially with the comps getting very tough. Goods prices jumped 9.5% y/o/y vs 10.6% in March and 9.5% in February. Service …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/20

Positives 1)Core retail sales in April rose 1% m/o/m in nominal terms, 3 tenths more than expected. There was also the annual revision changes for the prior year plus that influenced the comparisons. Unfortunately inflation is eating much into this in real terms. 2)In the first full month covering the Russian invasion, foreigners bought a net $48.8b of US notes …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/13

Positives 1)Continuing claims fell to a new cycle low and fresh 50+ yr low at 1.343mm from 1.387mm last week. 2)Import prices in April were flat m/o/m vs the estimate of up .6% but half of that is explained by the 3 tenths upward revision to March which spiked by 2.9% in the month alone. Ex petro, prices rose .4%, 3 tenths less than expected and March was …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/6

Positives 1)Payrolls in April grew by 428k, 58k more than expected but mostly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 39k. 2)Continuing claims, delayed by a week in its reporting, fell to 1.38mm from 1.4mm and that is a new 50+ yr low. 3)The Fed meeting was a non event in terms of making new news. As people got way over the skis in thinking …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/29

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 180k as expected and down 5k from last week. The 4 week average rose to 180k vs 178k. Continuing claims were a touch above the estimate coming in at 1.408mm, just off the lowest in more than 50 years. 2)In March, personal income grew more than expected as did spending and the spending figure will likely result in an …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/22

Positives 1)The US Markit manufacturing April PMI index rose .9 pts to 59.7, a 7 month high. Production and new orders led the way. Supplier delivery problems though did rise again. Export orders rose to almost a one year high. Employment was higher. This is what was said on prices, “Inflationary pressures remained marked across the goods producing sector in April. …

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Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/14

Positives 1)The initial April UoM consumer confidence index rose to 65.7 from 59.4 which was the lowest since 2011. The estimate was for a slight decline to 59. Almost all of the increase came from the Expectations component which rose by almost 10 pts m/o/m. Current Conditions were up slightly to 68.1 from 67.2. One yr inflation expectations held at 5.4%, the …

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