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Positives 1)June payrolls grew by 850k, 130k more than expected with a combined upward revision of 15k to the two prior months. The private sector added 662k of this which was 57k higher than the forecast. The all in U6 rate did fall to 9.8% and that is the lowest since March 2020 and the number of job leavers jumped again which goes to the large number of job …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 7/2

Positives 1)Continuing claims, delayed by a week in its reporting, fell to 3.39mm from 3.52mm and that was below the estimate of 3.46mm and the lowest since last March. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving PUA fell by another 175k. 2)Spending, when including the April revision, was as expected with income slightly better with a smaller than expected drop. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 6/25

Positives 1)However subtle, Jay Powell opened the door to the beginning of a trimming of the Fed's asset purchases at some point which we assume to be in the next quarter or two. St. Louis Fed president Jim Bullard furthered the commentary on CNBC by saying the tapering discussion is now wide open and that inflation is now rebounding more than he expected. He also …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 6/18

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 376k from 385k, but just above the estimate of 370k. The 4 week average fell to 403k from 428k. PUA fell by 2k w/o/w to 71k. Also positively, continuing claims fell by 258k after rising by 146k as hopefully some of those job openings are getting filled. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving emergency claims fell by …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/11

Positives 1)ADP said a net 978k private sector jobs were added in May, well more than the estimate of 650k but partly offset by an 88k downward revision to April to 654k. The job distribution by business size was well balanced. ADP said “While goods producers grew at a steady pace, it is service providers that accounted for the lion’s share of the gains, far …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/4

Positives 1)As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, I just wanted to send this link again as we should all be grateful that we (specifically our genius scientists, doctors and healthcare workers) essentially conquered Covid, //www.youtube.com/watch?v=02G1IIgyhfo and it’s time to live life again. 2)Initial jobless claims fell to 406k, 20k less than expected …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 5/28

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 473k from a revised 507k last week. The estimate was 490k while last week was revised from 498k. The 4 week average fell to 534k from 562k. PUA was little changed at 104k from 102k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by 45k w/o/w but has essentially flat lined over the past 4 weeks. 2)The number of job openings …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/14

Positives 1)Offsetting somewhat the big jobs disappointment was the increase in hours worked to 35 from 34.9 which matches the most since at least 2006 that I have data on. Also, the participation rate ticked up by 2 bps to 61.7%, matching the highest since March 2020 although remains well below the 63.4% print in January 2020. The employment to population ratio …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/7