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Positives 1)The October CPI rose .4% headline and .3% core, both two tenths below expectations. The headline y/o/y increase was 7.7% vs 8.2% in September. The core rate was higher by 6.3% y/o/y after the 40 yr high print of 6.6% in the month before. Energy prices rebounded by 1.8% m/o/m after 3 months of declines and are higher by 17.6% y/o/y. Food prices rose …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/11

Positives 1)Payrolls grew by 261k in October, above the estimate of 193k and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 29k. About half of the upside surprise came from government workers. The private sector added 233k vs the forecast of 200k. The participation rate rose one tenth to 62.2% but was at 62.4% two months ago. The workweek held at 34.5 as …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/4

Positives 1)Thanks to a much lower than expected price deflator, Real Q3 GDP beat estimates with a 2.6% increase vs the estimate of 2.4%. Looking at nominal growth, the estimate was 7.7% and we got 6.7%. Trade also was the main contributor to growth. The negative was that final sales to private domestic purchasers was up just .1%. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/28

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 214k, 19k below expectations and down from 226k last week. The 4 week average was little changed at 212k vs 211k in the week prior. Continuing clams rose to 1.385mm from 1.364mm but that was just a hair above the estimate. 2)According to the Treasury International Capital flow data out for August, foreigners bought …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/21

Positives 1)Payrolls grew by 263k, 8k more than expected and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 11k. The private sector added 288k and thus the government shed workers, mostly in education (seasonally adjustments). The household survey added a similar amount of jobs, 204k but when combined with a drop in the labor force of 57k (after the huge 786k …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/7

Positives 1)Initial jobless fell again to 193k which was 22k less than expected and down from 209k last week (revised from 213k). This brings the 4 week average to 207k from 216k and vs 223k in the week before. Also of note, continuing claims fell to 1.347mm, about 40k less than expected and down from 1.376mm in the week prior. 2)The September Conference Board’s …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/30

Positives 1)The Fed continues on with its commitment to lower inflation. 2)We also saw hikes this week from the BoE (50 bps as expected), the SNB (75 bps as expected), the Riksbank (100 bps, 75 bps expected), the Norges Bank (50 bps as expected), the Bank of Indonesia (50 bps vs 25 bps that was expected), the central bank in Taiwan (12.5 bps as expected), the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/23

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, 14k below expectations and vs 218k last week which was revised down by 4k. The 4k week average fell to 224k from 232k and that’s the lowest since mid June. Continuing claims were 1.403mm, well under the estimate of 75k and last week was revised down by 72k to 1.401mm. 2)The August Cass Freight Transportation Index …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/16