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Positives 1)Payrolls expanded in February by 379k which is well above the estimate of 200k and the private sector contributed 465k jobs, also vs the estimate of 200k. The two prior months were revised up by 38k at the headline level. Hiring in leisure and hospitality led the way. The household survey revealed 208k jobs were added and when combined with the 50k …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/5

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 730k from 841k last week (revised down by 20k) and that is down from 825k last week. This brings the 4 week average to 808k from 828k. Those getting PUA fell to 451k from 513k last week and vs 342k in the week prior. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 4.42mm from 4.52mm in the week prior. That was 40k less …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/26

Positives 1)Thanks in part to the late December passage of another fiscal spending plan where unemployment benefits were extended and juiced by $300 and some income earners got another $600, retail sales jumped 6% m/o/m in the 'control group' in January after a 2.4% decline in December and .9% drop in November. 2)The February NY manufacturing index rose …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/19

Positives 1)The January CPI rose .3% headline and was flat at the core level. The headline figure was as expected while the core rate was below the estimate of up .2%. Versus last year the headline gain is 1.4%, the same pace as in December. The core rate is higher also by 1.4% vs 1.6% in the month prior. The rise in goods prices is being offset by the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/12

Positives 1)The January unemployment rate declined to 6.3% but for good and bad reasons as the household survey said 201k jobs were added while the size of the labor force fell by 406k. The more comprehensive U6 rate dropped by 6 tenths to 11.1%. Of note was the jump in average hours worked to 35 from 34.7 which then mitigates the need to hire if your existing …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/5

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 847k, down from 914k last week (revised from 900k) and that is 28k less than expected, thus about in line when the two weeks are taken together. The 4 week average did rise though to 868k from 852k as a print of 782k fell out. Those receiving PUA fell by about 20k to 427k. Delayed by a week, those receiving continuing …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/29

Positives 1)The January US manufacturing and services PMI rose to 58 from 55.3 with both components higher. Markit said "US businesses reported a strong start to 2021, buoyed by hopes that vaccine developments will mean the worst of the pandemic is behind us, and that the new administration will provide a stable and supportive environment for stronger economic …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/22

Positives 1)Headline CPI in December rose .4% m/o/m and the core rate was higher by .1% m/o/m. Both are exactly in line with expectations. The headline rate is now up 1.4% y/o/y and 1.6% ex food and energy. Services prices moderated further while goods prices accelerated further. 2)PPI in December rose .3% headline, one tenth core and .4% also taking out …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/15