Positives 1)Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/12
I'm traveling today and tomorrow to the middle of nowhere and will have very sketchy wifi. I'll do what I can with writing. Going thru some earnings calls over the past few days, I was focused on the consumer and the bifurcation we're now seeing. With respect to Disney, a stock we own, I wanted to hear what they had to say about the parks business for coming …
Headline CPI was flat m/o/m in July and up by .3% m/o/m at the core level, both 2 tenths below expectations. For perspective, the comparisons were 1.3% and .7% in June. Versus last year, the headline gain was up 8.5% vs 9.1% in June and by 5.9% at the core, unchanged with June. Driven by a 7.7% drop in gasoline prices, energy fell by 4.6% m/o/m, though still up 33% …
Thanks to a sharp drop in gasoline prices, a fall in food prices, price cuts on a variety of goods like apparel, and the implicit belief that aggressive rate hikes are going to further hurt demand and thus prices, the NY Fed yesterday said one yr inflation expectations fell to 6.2% from 6.8%. The 3 yr outlook fell to 3.2% from 3.6%. They said "Both decreases were …
Positives 1)The headline gain in payrolls for July far exceeded expectations with a 528k gain, more than double the estimate of 250k and the two prior months were revised up by a combined 28k. The household survey said 179k jobs were added after losing 315k in June. Combine that with the drop of 63k in the labor force and the unemployment rate fell one tenth to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/5
Positives 1)The Fed continues on their path to conquer high inflation. 2)This is only on the positive side because off a record low in June of 50, the final July UoM consumer confidence was up 1.5 pts in July all due to the rise in Current Conditions. Expectations fell further, albeit a touch. One yr inflation expectations were 5.2%, the same as the initial …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/29
Positives 1)Within the PMI's today in the US, Europe and Asia, price pressures are moderating. 2)The ECB ended negative interest rate policy, finally. 3)Putin turned back on Nord Stream 1, although natural gas prices were unchanged on the week. 4)Multi family starts in June totaled 577k vs 523k in May, 632k in April and 525k in March. Multi family …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/22
Positives 1)Gasoline prices continue to drop to the lowest in two months with the average gallon at $4.58 according to AAA. 2)With the response to inflation being a now aggressive Fed, NY Fed consumer expectations for 3 yr inflation fell to 3.6% from 3.9%. 3)Core June retail sales, stated in nominal terms, rose .8% m/o/m, 5 tenths better than expected but …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/15
Positives 1)June payrolls grew by 372k, 107k more than expected but mostly offset by a downward revision to the two prior months of 74k. The private sector added 381k jobs in June, as the government shed a few. Average hourly earnings rose .3% m/o/m as expected and 5.1% y/o/y but which we know remains well below the 8%+ pace of inflation. A 9% rise in average …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/8
Positives 1)Only a positive because it was a hair less than anticipated, the May headline PCE rose .6% and the core rate was higher by .3% and both were one tenth below expectations. The y/o/y gain for headline PCE was 6.3%, the same print seen in April. The core rate grew by 4.7% y/o/y vs 4.9% in the month before. Durable goods prices rose 8.4% y/o/y and the pace …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 7/1
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
