Positives 1)The May Markit manufacturing and services composite PMI rose to 68.1 from 63.5 mostly driven by a jump in the services component which increased to 70.1 from 64.7. Manufacturing was higher by 1 pt to 61.5. With services, dating back to 2009 the print is the best on record as “Firms linked the upturn to stronger client demand amid greater customer …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/21
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 473k from a revised 507k last week. The estimate was 490k while last week was revised from 498k. The 4 week average fell to 534k from 562k. PUA was little changed at 104k from 102k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims fell by 45k w/o/w but has essentially flat lined over the past 4 weeks. 2)The number of job openings …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/14
Positives 1)Offsetting somewhat the big jobs disappointment was the increase in hours worked to 35 from 34.9 which matches the most since at least 2006 that I have data on. Also, the participation rate ticked up by 2 bps to 61.7%, matching the highest since March 2020 although remains well below the 63.4% print in January 2020. The employment to population ratio …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: 5/7
The BLS said a net 266k jobs were created in April, quite different than the expectations of a 1mm plus and the two prior months were revised down by 78k. The private sector added just 218k. The household survey said a net 328k jobs were gained and when compared to the rise in the labor force of 430k, the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 6%. Positively though, the …
The April ISM manufacturing index fell to 60.7, down 4 pts from March and that was well below the estimate of 65 because of the major supply problems. New orders fell by 3.7 pts but still is high at 64.3. Backlogs were little changed, up .7 pts to also a high level of 68.2. Supplier deliveries, reflecting the supply challenges, fell by 1.6 pts but remains very …
Positives 1)Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan hopefully is elevating the taper discussion amongst his colleagues with his expression today that “we’re now observing excesses and imbalances in markets” and “we’ve got real excesses in the housing market…It’s not yet the speculative situation that we had back in ’07, ’08 and ’09, but I think it bears watching and …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/30
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 576k from 769k (revised from 744k) and that was well below the estimate 700k. The 4 week average fell to 683k from 730k. Pandemic unemployment assistance fell to 132k from 152k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims were little changed at 3.73mm vs 3.727mm in the week prior. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/16
Positives 1). The BLS said 916k jobs were added in March, well above the estimate of 660k and the two prior months were revised up by a total of 156k. A big pick up in government hiring, education related as schools reopened, was a key reason. The private sector contributed 780k of the jobs vs the estimate of 643k. The household survey saw a job add of 609k …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 4/2
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 684k from 770k and that was 46k less than expected and the lowest since the spike last March. Those collecting PUA fell to 242k from 284k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims also continued its shrink to 3.87mm from 4.13mm and below the estimate of 4mm. 2)The March US manufacturing and services PMI from Markit …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/26
Positives 1)As the world is quite the different place today versus a year ago, the Fed did the right thing I believe by not extending a Covid related emergency waiver for the banks. 2)Pandemic unemployment assistance fell to 282k from 479k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 18k to 4.12mm, a fresh one yr low. Delayed by two weeks, continuing …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/19
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
