Free Access

Positives 1)The March Markit manufacturing and services PMI for the US rose to 58.5 from 55.9 with most of the help from services as this component rose 2.4 pts m/o/m. Manufacturing lifted too, by 1.2 pts to 58.5. With services, “Greater activity was driven by a marked increase in new business that was the sharpest since June 2021, as demand conditions …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/25

Positives 1)Finally, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps to .25-.50% only days after CPI printed 7.9%. 2)Initial jobless claims fell to 214k from 229k last week and that was 6k less than expected. As a print of 249k dropped out of the calculation, the 4 week average declined to 223k from 232k. Delayed by a week in reporting, those still receiving …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/18

Positives 1)The slight pullback in the average 30 yr mortgage rate (which will reverse higher next week with the lift this week in the 10 yr yield) to 4.09% from 4.15% in the week higher resulted in a lift in mortgage applications. Purchases rose 8.6% w/o/w but are still down 7.4% y/o/y. Ref's were up 8.5% w/o/w but are down 50% y/o/y. 2)While dated, the number …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/11

Positives 1)February payrolls grew by a net 678k, well more than the estimate of 423k and the two prior months were revised up by 92k. Of this, the private sector contributed 654k. The household survey said 548k jobs were added and when combined with an increase in the size of the labor force of 304k, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4% in January and 3.9% …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/4

Positives 1)Initial jobless claims totaled 232k, 3k less than expected and down from 249k last week and vs 225k in the week prior. The 4 week average fell to 236k from 244k. Continuing claims, delayed by a week in its reporting, fell by more than 100k w/o/w to a new post covid low of 1.476mm and that was last seen in 1970. The estimate was 1.58mm. 2)The Markit …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/25

Positives 1)The January 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the NY Fed showed some moderation in inflation expectations for both 1 yr and 3 yrs out. For one year, they fell by .2% m/o/m but to a still very elevated 5.8%. It’s the 1st m/o/m drop since October 2020. For 3 yrs, the median pace of inflation is expected to be 3.5% vs 4% in December. The NY Fed …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/18

Positives 1)Initial claims totaled 223k, 7k less than expected and down from 239k last week. Continuing claims were 1.621mm, just above expectations but at their pre Covid pace. 2)UK GDP for December wasn't as soft as forecasted and thus a bit less negatively impacted by omicron even though it still was negative. IP and construction were positive but consumer …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/11

Positives 1)January payrolls jumped by 467k, well more than the estimate of 125k and certainly well above the fears of a negative print that we saw from ADP. Specifically within the private sector, 444k jobs were added vs the forecast of 35k. The two prior months were revised up by a large 709k. The household survey said 1.2mm jobs were added in the month but there …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/4

Positives 1)While still adding to its balance sheet for another month and half and not hiking until then, Powell expressed a more heightened concern with inflation and is finally on the cusp of doing something about it. 2)Initial jobless claims after last week’s spike to 290k (revised from 286k), moderated back to 260k vs the estimate of 265k. Smoothing this out …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events