Positives 1)While this potentially could be momentous (sorry for the hyperbole), disruptive, destructive to holders and possibly temporary if I’m wrong, the shrinking pile of negative yielding securities to the lowest since June is desperately needed in order to reestablish a more normal, functioning financial system. 2)The October ISM services index rose to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/8
It was music to my ears when I heard last night the possibility that the administration is considering, upon request of the Chinese, to also roll back the September 1st tariffs on about $110b worth of consumer goods. In return we'll have to see but it would at least further temper the negative economic impact of tariffs and take us back to where we were on July 31st, …
It's a quiet morning with markets riding on hopes of the initial trade deal becoming signed within weeks where it looks like it will include soybean purchases, currency parameters and the opening up of the Chinese financial industry with no implementation of the December 15th tariffs but we'll still be left with the tariffs on $360b of goods. I've still seen no …
[Read more...] about It looks like Xi is coming to farm country
Positives 1)Payrolls in October grew by 128k, well better than the estimate of 85k and the two prior months were revised up by a net 95k. The unemployment rate ticked up by one tenth to 3.6% but because the size of the labor force grew by 325k, above the increase in the household survey of 241k (with a gain in the key 25-54 age area). The all in rate rose one …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/1
Positives 1).The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index in October rose a touch to 51.2 from 51 in September. Manufacturing rose .4 pts to 51.5 and services went to 51 form 50.9. Market said the lift in manufacturing was “helped by stronger growth of output, new orders and employment” and also “an increase in new export sales for the first time …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/25
Positives 1).As of this writing it looks like something positive will come of the trade negotiations. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 210k, 10k less than expected and down from 220k last week. As a print of 206k came out, the 4 week average rose 1k to 214k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose 29k but off the lowest since April. 3) The preliminary UoM …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/11
Much is being made of the weekend story from Bloomberg News that China is honing in on only a limited deal in coming days. As I believe that the most important thing we can get out of China is the protection of our technology, and that is supposedly a part of a limited deal, I'm ok with that. I also believe that the administration will do anything they can not to have …
[Read more...] about It’s time to buy stock in shovel makers
Positives 1).Payrolls in September grew by 136k, 9k less than expected but the two prior months were revised up by a net 45k. The private sector added 114k jobs vs the estimate of 130k and the two prior months were revised up by 17k. Thus, we can call the private sector data pretty much as expected when stretching out over 3 months, but averaging just 119k. It …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/4
The September ISM manufacturing index fell further into contraction at 47.8 vs 49.1 in August and below the estimate of exactly 50. That is the weakest print since June 2009. New orders were little changed but still below 50 at 47.3. Backlogs fell 1.2 pts to 45.1 and that is the 5th time in a row it’s been below 50. The weakness in business was most obvious within …
[Read more...] about We’ve tariffed our way into a mfr’g recession
Positives 1) Both sides are showing some signs of bending on the trade negotiations with a combination of economic and political pressures building. 2) The preliminary September UoM consumer confidence index ticked up a touch to 92 from 89.8 and that was 1.2 pts above the forecast and which follows the 8.6 pt drop in August. Both current conditions and …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 9/13
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
