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Positives 1)At least for now, the tension between the US and Iran took a dramatic step lower and WTI oil prices are back below $60. 2)We finally have a Fed member in Dallas President Robert Kaplan that is vocal that the dramatic rise in the Fed’s balance sheet since September doesn’t happen in a vacuum and is fully aware of the impact on financial assets …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/10

Positives 1)Japan's unemployment rate in November fell to 2.2% from 2.4% unexpectedly. The estimate was for no change. This was driven by a rise in the number employed and a drop in the size of the labor force. Also of note was the jobs to applicant ratio which held at 1.57, near the highest since the 1970's. 2)For the first 20 days of December, exports out of …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/27

Positives 1)The December Markit US manufacturing and services PMI was little changed from November at 52.2 vs 52 last month. The manufacturing component fell a hair to 52.5 from 52.6 while services was up by .6 pts to 52.2. With services again leading the way, Markit said “Although the increase in new business remained historically muted, the rate of expansion …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/20

Positives The US and China have FINALLY reached a phase one trade deal. Hopefully our biggest concerns about theft and forced IT sharing are addressed but only time will tell. The US farmer can breath a sigh of relief that their once biggest customer is back and can add one day to the pace of $26b per year of products they were buying before this trade spat. …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/13

Positives 1) Job growth in November totaled 266k, well more than the estimate of 180k and the two prior months were revised up by 41k. The 3 month private sector job growth average is 200k. The November figure includes a rebound of 41.3k jobs in vehicles/parts which about reverses the revised decline of 42.8k in October. Education/health care and leisure and …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/6

Positives The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate was lifted to 1.7% from .4% last week. Initial jobless claims after two weeks of notable upside surprises came in at 213k, 8k less than expected vs 228k last week (revised up by 1k) and 227k in the week prior. As a print of 219k dropped out, the 4 week average fell to 220k vs 221k. Continuing claims, delayed by a …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/29

Positives 1)The Markit manufacturing and services composite November PMI index rose 1 pt to 51.9 with manufacturing up to 52.2 from 51.3 and the services side rising 1 pt to 51.6. Quantifying the current levels, Markit said it’s consistent with GDP growth of about 1.5% and job growth of “approximately 100,000.” Still, “business expectations for the future are …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/22

Positives 1)”We are coming down to the short strokes” on this phase one deal says Larry Kudlow. Let’s hope so and that it includes substance and a roll back in at least some tariffs. 2)The producer price index in October rose .4% m/o/m headline and .3% core and both were one tenth more than expected. The y/o/y gains though did slow from September with the …

[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/15