Positives 1)Delayed by a week in its reporting, continuing claims fell to 5.51mm from 5.76mm and that was 200k less than expected. Some though have benefits that are now expiring. 2)After falling 5% last week which followed a 9% rise in the week prior, the MBA said purchase applications rose 1.8% w/o/w and remain up a solid 27% y/o/y. Refi's rose 1.4% …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/18
Positives 1)The consumer mood improved in December according to the UoM consumer confidence index which rose to 81.4 from 76.9. The estimate was for little change at 76. Current Conditions rose 4.8 pts m/o/m while the Expectations component was higher by 4.2 pts. One year inflation expectations did recede to 2.3% from 2.8%. Employment expectations got back 9 …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 12/11
While we know November was an amazing month for markets and the world on the heels of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine news, what has really surprised me is the behavior of long term interest rates that instead lived on its own island. The 30 yr bond yield (the maturity I like most right now for market messaging) started November at 1.66% and closed it at 1.57%. The 10 …
Here are a few of my thoughts on what Steve Mnuchin wrote to Jay Powell: 1)As Mnuchin is about to leave DC he wants to say 'mission accomplished.' 2)With many of these facilities barely being used, he wants the money back to allocate to a possible fiscal deal. 3)Once a government program is created, it never really dies. 4)Good riddance to the …
Positives 1)Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine showed 90% efficacy. 2)For the week ended Nov 7th Initial jobless claims fell to 709k from 757k and that was below the estimate of 731k. Continuing claims for the week ended Oct 31st continued to fall and this week to 6.79mm vs the estimate of 6.83mm and down from 7.22mm last week. Also positively, those filing for …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 11/13
Seen in yesterday's Investors Intelligence sentiment data, the Bulls are back with a rise to 59.2 from 53.6 and bears shrunk below 20 at 19.4 from 20.6 last week. As I've mentioned before, a Bull read 60+ is extreme and we are obviously close. Well, we can now add the individual investor that has completely thrown in the towel on the Bear side. AAII said Bears fell …
Positives 1)October payrolls grew by 638k, above the forecast of 580k and the two prior months were revised up by a net 15k and this compares with 672k last month. The private sector saw a gain of 906k, well better than the estimate of 680k. The household survey saw a huge gain of 2.2mm and when combined with the labor force increase of 724k, the unemployment …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:
Positives 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 751k from 787k and that was 20k below expectations. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, totaled 7.76mm, down from 8.37mm and about 20k less than expected. 2)The October Chicago manufacturing PMI was 61.1. That is better than the estimate of 58 but down slightly from the 62.4 seen in September. MNI said “Anecdotal …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/30
Positives 1)Existing home sales in September totaled 6.54mm, above the estimate of 6.3mm and up from 5.98mm in August. That is the most since May 2006 with a rise m/o/m in all 4 regions. With the decline in the number of homes for sale, months’ supply fell to just 2.7 from 3.0, the lowest in data going back to 1999. The median home price was up 14.8% to a new …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/23
Positives 1)Core retail sales in September rose 1.4% m/o/m, well better than the estimate of up .3% and only partially offset by a two tenths downward revision to August to -.3%. 2)Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell 1.17mm to about 10mm with the hopes that many found jobs. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance also fell to 373k from 464k. 3)The Philly …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 10/16
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
