Positives 1) Initial jobless claims totaled 221k, 4k less than expected and down from 230k last week (revised up by 1k). This brings the 4 week average to 225k, up 1k because a 217k print falls out of the average. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 27k after rising by 19k last week. 2) The March Philly manufacturing index rose to 13.7 after going …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/22
Positives 1) January new home sales totaled 607k, 15k less than expected but December was revised up by 31k to 652k and which followed below 600k prints in the two prior months. Smoothing out this volatile number puts the 3 month average at 619k vs the 6 month average of 603k and the 12 month average of 621k. The average in 2017 was 616k. Months' supply rose to …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/15
Positives 1) Within the payroll number, average hourly earnings grew by .4% m/o/m, one tenth more than expected and higher by 3.4% y/o/y, the best since 2009. Average hourly earnings though were up just .1% m/o/m as hours worked fell. The y/o/y increase was 3.1%. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 223k, 2k less than expected while last week was revised up by 1k …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/8
Positives 1) It does seem like the US and China are wrapping up the final details of a trade deal that has real substance to it. Question remains though, what happens with the tariffs currently in place. 2) The US economy grew by 2.6% q/o/q annualized in Q4 and that was 4 tenths more than expected. On a y/o/y basis, growth was up by 3.1%. The gain was led by …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 3/1
Positives 1) The February NAHB home builder index surprised to the upside with a print of 62, 3 pts better and up 4 pts from January. The 6 pt combined gain in January and February follows the 12 pt drop in November and December. The Present Situation rose 3 pts m/o/m and is back to where it was in November at 67. Expectations jumped by 5 pts to 68 and is 3 pts …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/22
Positives 1) The government will not partially close again this time around. 2) Headline PPI in January was one tenth less than expected when including a revision to December. The core rate though was up .2% m/o/m as expected and 2.6% y/o/y. Trade costs jumped by .8% and transportation/warehousing was higher by .5%. 3) In December, there were 7.3mm job openings, a …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/15
The January CPI saw no change at the headline level and a .2% core rate of increase which brings the y/o/y increases to 1.6% and 2.2% respectively. This is in line with expectations. Another decline in oil prices kept a lid on the headline figure. Food prices were up .2% m/o/m and 1.6% y/o/y. In what continues to be the case, services inflation ex energy remains …
[Read more...] about Please stop telling me there is no inflation
If the market is rallying this morning because the government won't shut down again, I'd find a better reason for chasing it at 9:30am est since we had the best January in 30 years when it was closed. Make your reason related to China trade talks (where the March 1st deadline is likely to be extended), earnings, Fed policy, economy, etc... Small business optimism …
Positives 1) In November, the US trade deficit fell to $49.3b from $55.7b in October. That’s well below the estimate of $54b but was mostly due to a 2.9% drop in imports to the lowest since June as exports fell .6%. While this will boost Q4 GDP, it’s not for the right reasons and instead is just the math. Reflecting the slowdown in key economies and regions …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 2/8
The revised January services PMI for the Eurozone was lifted to 51.2 from the first print of 50.8 and that puts it unchanged with December. That though is a 49 month low with France and Italy "the primary sources of weakness, with both countries registering declines in activity during January." Business improved in both Germany and Spain. The combined manufacturing …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
