Core durable goods orders in August were a bit weaker than expected, falling .2% m/o/m instead of seeing no change as forecasted. Versus last year, core capital spending is down 1.7%. Orders from July fell for vehicles/parts, electrical equipment and computers/electronics but rose for machinery and metals. Shipments of core goods, plugged into GDP, was up by …
[Read more...] about Cap spending softens as does spending, income good, PCE in line
The valuation revaluations continue with Peloton and Endeavor following WeWorks, Uber, Lyft, etc...This is not an issue with the IPO market, this is a rethink on excessive multiples relative to earnings, or the lack thereof. It is a sea change at this stage of the cycle. I wish I can get into the head of some central bankers because I still can't figure out their …
Pending home sales in August rose 1.6% m/o/m, a touch above the estimate of up 1%. This follows a 2.5% drop in July and 2.8% rise in June. Sales gains were led by a jump out West. Bottom line, there is no question that sales have responded to the drop in mortgage rates but there is bifurcation within the market. The upper end is slow, particularly in the high tax …
Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, about in line with the estimate of 212k and compares with 210k last week (revised from 208k). The 4 week average now is 212k vs 213k last week and that matches the lowest since April. Also of note, continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the least since October 2018. The bottom line remains the same bottom line for a while …
Hong Kong's trade data for August was weak but about as expected. Exports fell 6.3% y/o/y, marking the 10th straight month with y/o/y declines but that was a bit better than the estimate of a 7.4% drop. Imports were down by 11.1%, about in line and with China making up about half their imports and which were lower by 12.5%. Bottom line, the trade weakness is not a …
Voting member Charlie Evans, a known dove with a big focus on the PCE and getting it to 2% (like this is some video game where enough joy stick moves can make it happen), spoke today and in the Q&A said that while he fully supported the two rate cuts so far, his economic and rate forecast does not include another cut. “It think we’re pretty well positioned now to …
[Read more...] about Voting member Evans, to cut again or not to
New home sales in August totaled 713k which was well above the forecast of 659k and July was revised up by 31k to 666k and which compares with 729k in June. All of the upside m/o/m was seen in the South and West. As the number of homes for sale slipped, months’ supply fell to 5.5 from 5.9. The median home price, which jumps around a lot month to month, rose 2.2% to a …
I'm certainly not going to chime in on the factual side of the allegations against Trump and only say what it might mean about the economy and markets. I'll argue for now, nothing as no matter where it goes in the House, it dies in the Senate. Yes, Washington DC now has something else to obsess about but it will mean much less to Main Street and Wall Street. Now this …
[Read more...] about At least for now, it should mean nothing
The NY manufacturing index, the 1st September industrial figure to be released, fell to +2 from +4.8. The estimate was +4. This is the 2nd lowest print going back to late 2016. Within, new orders fell 3.2 pts to 3.5. Backlogs remained below zero for a 5th month in the past 6 but less so compared with August. Employment bounced back after 3 months in a row that was …
Housing starts in June totaled 1.173mm, well less than the estimate of 1.32mm and May was revised down by 13k to 1.337mm. The contribution to the miss was from both single family starts and multi family. Single family starts in particular fell to the lowest level since December at 858k. Also of note was the 78k m/o/m drop in multi family construction which fell to …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
