The February CPI rose .4% m/o/m headline as expected while the core rate was up by .5% m/o/m, one tenth above what was expected. The y/o/y gains are 6% and 5.5% respectively vs 6.4% and 5.6% in the month before. With respect to services, prices ex energy rose .6% m/o/m and 7.3% y/o/y with the latter at a fresh 41 yr high. Rental growth is still playing catch up and …
[Read more...] about CPI data and Fed response not just next week but thereafter
While it's highly uncertain as to what is protected and what's not, hopefully in the short term depositors can take a deep breath and we can shift back to the economic data and measure the business consequences of everything that has happened over the past week rather than worry about more bank runs (I believe the challenge of most banks is with profits from …
Another crisis averted as the Federal Reserve AGAIN shows up in their fire truck after setting the house ablaze with years of cheap money followed by one year of a vertical rise in interest rates. Putting aside the moral hazard/bailout debate, thankfully many small and medium sized businesses will live to fight another business day and their employees can get paid. …
Initial jobless claims rose back above 200k for the first time since the first week of January at 211k, up from 190k last week and 16k more than forecasted. This lifted the 4 week average to 197k from 193k. Also of note, continuing claims jumped by 69k to 1.72mm, matching the highest since January 2022. This follows the Challenger job cut February report an hour …
[Read more...] about Claims data – highest continuing claims since Jan 2022
In case you didn't see, here were a few more notable general comments from yesterday's Beige Book. "Six Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the last report, while six indicated economic activity expanded at a modest pace." Remember that this comes after 1% real growth in 2022 that came after the 2021 reopening. "On balance, supply …
[Read more...] about A few things and Kuroda’s swan song, good riddance
As the Beige Book has so much anecdotal information and I don’t want to inundate you with too much, I’m going to hone in on the comments on the very interest rate sensitive commercial real estate sector as that is not just really important for the landlords but also for the banks that lend money to them. We know of course that those with floating rate debt and/or have …
Job openings in January totaled 10.82mm, almost 300k above the estimate but down from 11.23mm in December. Hiring’s rose by 121k from December and the hiring rate was 4.1% vs 4% in December and 4.1% in November. The number of quits fell and the quit rate fell to 2.5% which is the lowest since February 2021. Well, at least in the most interest rate sensitive part of …
[Read more...] about JOLTS, job openings plunge in construction and other real estate
ADP said 242k private sector jobs were added in February following 119k in January. While that was above the estimate of 200k, the January figure was of course quite different than what the BLS told us. Of note, small businesses shed jobs, totaling 61k but was offset by the rise in hiring by medium and large companies. For a local restaurant or small business to …
After taking an Advil while watching the questions being asked of Powell and with Powell saying the dot plot in a few weeks will most likely tilt up in terms of the median end point of the fed funds rate from the previous 5.4%, the fed funds futures market is pricing in a 48% change of a 50 bps hike in two weeks. That is up from 28% yesterday. The end rate is now up …
[Read more...] about A time for Advil and a check on the fed funds futures
Cutting to the chase of Powell’s prepared testimony, he said “Although inflation has been moderating in recent months, the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy…If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes. Restoring price …
[Read more...] about “We will stay the course until the job is done”
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.
