I do want to say a few things about the funding issues that the overnight repo markets are still having as evidenced by the huge daily maneuvers by the Fed between the huge amount of T-bills they are buying now and the repo operations they are conducting. What has become crystal clear is that the massive US budget deficit and funding needs has finally overwhelmed the …
Uncategorized
Mfr’g hopes, services soft/Housing
The Markit US manufacturing and services composite index in October was little changed at 51.2 from 51 in September. Manufacturing rose .4 pts to 51.5 and services went to 51 form 50.9. Market said the lift in manufacturing was “helped by stronger growth of output, new orders and employment” and also “an increase in new export sales for the first time in four …
Cap spending a casualty/Claims
Core durable goods orders in September fell .5% m/o/m, 4 tenths more than expected and August was revised down by two tenths. Core orders are now down 1.1% over the past 3 months. Also of note and which will lead to lower Q3 GDP forecasts is that shipments of core goods dropped .7%, 5 tenths more than forecasted and August was revised down to no growth from the last …
Sentiment/Data/No Mas to NIRP
Following a shift higher above 50 in yesterday's Investors Intelligence sentiment data, today the AAII index saw Bulls rising 2 pts to 35.6 after last weeks 13.3 pt jump. The highest since August 1st. Bears fell 2.8 pts to 28.3 after the 12.9 drop last week. That's the least since August 1st. Bottom line as I said yesterday, the Bull boat has gotten more crowded but …
Don’t listen to me, listen to them
Texas Instruments (I have no position) is a great tell on the state of the global industrial business, particularly in autos and this is what they had to say on their conference call last night, which I listened to, that I believe is telling on the state of the economy that they touch: "We have close to 100,000 different customers and we sell about 100,000 different …
Home sales/Mfr’g
Existing home sales in September totaled 5.38mm, below the estimate of 5.45mm, down from 5.50mm in August and with declines in all 4 regions. These closings likely covers contracts mostly signed in the June thru August time frame. For perspective, the 3 month average is now 5.43mm and the 6 month average is 5.36mm. As there was no change m/o/m in the number of …
Cash and profitability are now king
On the same day I read this CNBC article yesterday, //www.cnbc.com/2019/10/21/goldman-warns-buybacks-are-plummeting.html, I looked at the recent C&I data from Friday and saw the total amount of loans outstanding is at the lowest level since March. CEO’s and CFO’s are clearly responding to what the recent confidence indices have reflected and that is reigning …
BoJo won’t quit/Yields/Trade
While Boris Johnson wrote kicking and screaming to the EU for an extension, he's still holding out hope that he can pull this off before October 31st and the pound is not giving up any of last week's gains as a result. Either way I believe it is more and more likely that this is going to get resolved whether in a week or in the next few months. The pound has much …
China/Japan/Good Riddance
China's economy continued to decelerate in Q3 as they reported GDP up 6% y/o/y vs 6.2% in Q2 and vs the estimate of 6.1%. This is the slowest pace of growth since I have data back to 1992. Now it's highly likely that growth is even slower as we know what China does with its data but either way the trajectory is clear. China also revealed some data on how the …
IP impacted by GM strike
Industrial production in September fell .4% m/o/m, twice the estimate of a .2% decline but offset by a 2 tenths upward increase to August. The manufacturing component fell .5% m/o/m, 2 tenths more than expected while August was revised up by one tenth. The particular area of weakness, most likely related to the GM strike, was auto production which fell 4.2% m/o/m …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.