Housing starts in September totaled 1.256mm, well below the estimate of 1.32mm, partially offset by an upward revision to August of 22k. The differential was all due to the multi family side which is extremely volatile month to month. For example, multi family starts was 450k in May, 369k in June, 333k in July, 471k in August and 338k in September. Single …
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Congrats to Boris
Congrats to Boris Johnson for taking this over the finish line. The pound now trading around $1.29 vs the US dollar still has a ways to go I believe to the upside. It traded at $1.48-.49 on June 23rd, 2016, the day of the vote and closed at $1.37 the day after. Bond yields in Europe and the US continue higher with the 10 yr Gilt yield up 2 bps to .73%. Just a week and …
Retail sales comments
In the just released Beige Book from the Fed, I’m just going to highlight the commentary on retail sales as all eyes are on the consumer. I have to say that for all the talk about how strong the US consumer is, coincident with the mediocre retail sales report today, the comments were quite uneven. Boston: “Responding retailers reported sales ranging from down …
Housing and retail sales
Sorry for the late commentary here, was traveling. The about 100 bps y/o/y decline in mortgage rates continues to lift the spirits of home builders as the October NAHB builder survey rose 3 pts m/o/m to 71 (the breakeven is 50), the best level since February 2018. Notably, Prospective Buyers Traffic rose 4 pts to 54, also the best since February 2018. Regionally, …
Bond yields
So we have a possible Phase 1 deal with China (regardless of the content it’s at least one step forward), a draft deal on Brexit, the Bank of Japan that wants higher long term rates, and an ECB that has internally revolted against the recent increase in extreme policy and notwithstanding the global economic slowdown, I believe we have in place the circumstances …
I’m predicting a 70% beat rate
With earnings time here, I promise that about 70% of companies will beat bottom line estimates as they historically do and the 4% y/o/y expected Q3 EPS decline will likely end up around flat to -1%. Thus, that is where the bar is. With revenue estimates expected to show growth, the difference is continued margin erosion. The October NY manufacturing survey came out …
Now 10 straight months
After seeing the September Cass Freight shipments index, a trade détente with China can’t come soon enough along with not just eliminating the chances of more tariffs to come but getting rid of the existing ones. Volumes were down y/o/y for a 10th straight month with weakness in demand “being seen across most modes of transportation, both domestically …
Let’s compare
When strictly analyzing the stock market's levels and action when directly tied to a deal or no deal with China, I think it's helpful to use the May 3rd 2019 close as a benchmark. It was going into that weekend where we were supposedly doting I's and crossing T's on a deal that was all encompassing. Of course getting that last 10% done was the problem (mostly related …
Rate cut odds
Rate cut odds of 25 bps for the late October FOMC meeting are down to 65% from 78% yesterday and 82% on Wednesday. I’m of the belief that if this trade deal is of substance and rolls back all of the consumer focused tariffs (those put on September 1 and those expected on December 15th) and limits the existing industrial targeted tariffs at 25%, there will be no rate …
Consumer confidence rises
The preliminary UoM consumer confidence index rose to 96 from 93.2 and that was 4 pts above the estimate. Most of the gain was driven by the 5 pt rise in Current Conditions as Expectations were up by 1.4 pts. One year inflation expectations fell to 2.5% from 2.8% and that matches the recent low seen in April. Some see this as a bad thing but a lower cost of living is …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.