Pending home sales in August rose 1.6% m/o/m, a touch above the estimate of up 1%. This follows a 2.5% drop in July and 2.8% rise in June. Sales gains were led by a jump out West. Bottom line, there is no question that sales have responded to the drop in mortgage rates but there is bifurcation within the market. The upper end is slow, particularly in the high tax …
Uncategorized
The pace of firing’s remains low
Initial jobless claims totaled 213k, about in line with the estimate of 212k and compares with 210k last week (revised from 208k). The 4 week average now is 212k vs 213k last week and that matches the lowest since April. Also of note, continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell to the least since October 2018. The bottom line remains the same bottom line for a while …
Some economic data
Hong Kong's trade data for August was weak but about as expected. Exports fell 6.3% y/o/y, marking the 10th straight month with y/o/y declines but that was a bit better than the estimate of a 7.4% drop. Imports were down by 11.1%, about in line and with China making up about half their imports and which were lower by 12.5%. Bottom line, the trade weakness is not a …
Voting member Evans, to cut again or not to
Voting member Charlie Evans, a known dove with a big focus on the PCE and getting it to 2% (like this is some video game where enough joy stick moves can make it happen), spoke today and in the Q&A said that while he fully supported the two rate cuts so far, his economic and rate forecast does not include another cut. “It think we’re pretty well positioned now to …
[Read more...] about Voting member Evans, to cut again or not to
New home sales jump but…
New home sales in August totaled 713k which was well above the forecast of 659k and July was revised up by 31k to 666k and which compares with 729k in June. All of the upside m/o/m was seen in the South and West. As the number of homes for sale slipped, months’ supply fell to 5.5 from 5.9. The median home price, which jumps around a lot month to month, rose 2.2% to a …
At least for now, it should mean nothing
I'm certainly not going to chime in on the factual side of the allegations against Trump and only say what it might mean about the economy and markets. I'll argue for now, nothing as no matter where it goes in the House, it dies in the Senate. Yes, Washington DC now has something else to obsess about but it will mean much less to Main Street and Wall Street. Now this …
[Read more...] about At least for now, it should mean nothing
The NY manufacturing index, the 1st September industrial figure to be released, fell to +2 from +4.8. The estimate was +4. This is the 2nd lowest print going back to late 2016. Within, new orders fell 3.2 pts to 3.5. Backlogs remained below zero for a 5th month in the past 6 but less so compared with August. Employment bounced back after 3 months in a row that was …
Housing/Other
Housing starts in June totaled 1.173mm, well less than the estimate of 1.32mm and May was revised down by 13k to 1.337mm. The contribution to the miss was from both single family starts and multi family. Single family starts in particular fell to the lowest level since December at 858k. Also of note was the 78k m/o/m drop in multi family construction which fell to …
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/22
Positive 1) WSJ reports: “Germany’s largest auto makers back abolition of EU-US car import tariffs.” We have a 2.5% tariff on their cars and a 25% tariff on their SUV’s, pick up trucks and vans and they have a 10% tariff on our cars/trucks. Zero on all would be great. 2) Initial jobless claims totaled 218k, 2k less than expected and down from a revised 221k last …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 6/22
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/26
Positives Initial jobless claims totaled 233k, 2k less than expected and the prior week was revised down by 4k to 216k. This lowers the 4 week average to 240k from 244k and that is a one month low. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, fell by 28k after rising by 92k last week. The highest 30 yr mortgage rate in 10 months at 4.36% brought buyers off the fence …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 1/26
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.