The September Conference Board consumer confidence index was 138.4, well above the estimate of 132.1 and up from 134.7 last month. This level of confidence is the highest since September 2000 and was mostly driven by a rise in the Expectations component as Present Situation was little changed. Contributing to the enthusiasm was the 3.4 pt increase in the Jobs are …
We’re there
We're there, 3.11% in the 10 yr Treasury yield. Not only that, the 5 yr is at 2.99%. Again, 3.11% was the high close for the year touched on May 17th. Any close above that would be the highest since July 2011. Big moment. Bankrate.com last night said its average 30 yr mortgage rate was at 4.66%, one bp from the highest since May 2011. The selling today in bonds is …
A crappy auction
A 10 yr high in what a 2 yr US Treasury note yields was no attraction at all in the auction that just occurred. The yield of 2.829% was a touch above the when issued. The bid to cover of 2.44 was very weak, well below the one year average high of 2.81. That matches the worst bid to cover since December 2008. Also reflecting weak demand, dealers got stuck with 47% of …
Dallas manufacturing and some comments
The September Dallas manufacturing index fell almost 3 pts m/o/m to 28.1. The estimate was for no change. While the headline move lower was modest, the internals reflected more moderation. New orders fell to 14.7 from 23.9. Backlogs dropped to just 1.8 from 9.1. Production fell 6 pts. Employment was lower by 11 pts and hours worked dropped by 6.3 pts. Capital spending …
Interest rates
It was these comments that sent European bond yields to the high of the day and the German 10 yr yield to .50% for the first time since May, up 4 bps today: Mario Draghi said that there is a “relatively vigorous” rise in underlying inflation in the Eurozone. “Underlying inflation is expected to increase further over the coming months as the tightening labor market is …
A 2019 event I guess, shifting focus
Well I guess any hopes for a trade deal between the US and China won't happen anytime soon and is more likely a 2019 event which means those 10% taxes on the latest tranche on China that kicks in today will become 25% by year end. China's stock market was closed overnight so the only response seen was in the H shares in Hong Kong which closed lower by 1.8%. The Hang …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.