Initial jobless claims jumped to 419k from 368k and that was well above the estimate of 350k. While the low 300k’s is where claims were in the mid 2000’s expansion (vs low to mid 200k’s in the mid 2010’s), this begs the question that with 9.2mm job openings why are claims not falling faster. While the trajectory is down, it’s a fair debate. I can only speculate here but I’m seeing more anecdotal evidence that some companies are trimming staff to limit the profit margin pressure from higher inflation and I have to believe that anything related to the auto sector is seeing temporary job layoffs as plants close temporarily. Smoothing out the weekly noise, the 4 week average was 385k, up slightly from 384.5k last week. Those filing for PUA rose 14k m/o/m.
Last week, the WSJ said this: “Consumers aren’t the only ones paying for inflation. Food companies are also cutting costs through employee layoffs, reduced advertising, supplier shake ups and increased automation. General Mills recently announced a reorg involving corporate staffing reductions.” Stagflation is all over that quote.
Continuing claims totaled 3.236mm, down 30k from the week prior but 136k more than expected. Delayed by two weeks, those still getting PUA fell by 553k and those continuing to receive the emergency kind fell by 576k. All good news but 12.5mm are still collecting benefits with hopefully September, for various reasons, seeing another leg lower.
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS
CONTINUING CLAIMS