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Peter Boockvar

May 4, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Pause seems to be the hardest word

Just as Fonzie had difficulty saying the word 'wrong' or 'sorry' (that's from the tv show Happy Days for those who don't know who Fonzie is) and Elton John sang 'Sorry seems to be the hardest word', Jay Powell just couldn't bring himself yesterday to say the word 'pause', although he came close and said others talked about it. How many more banks need to fail before …

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May 3, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

A non event relative to expectations

The commentary on the economy was pretty similar to what they said in March, and they specifically repeated that “The US banking system is sound and resilient” and acknowledging again that “Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economy activity, hiring, and inflation.” So notwithstanding that last sentence stated for now a …

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May 3, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

A view of the US service sector

The April ISM services index rose .7 pts m/o/m to 51.9 about as expected. This compares with 55.1 in February and 55.2 in January. After falling by 10 pts in March, new orders rose by 3.9 pts to 56.1. Backlogs were below 50 for a 2nd month but just below at 49.7. Inventories fell 5.6 pts to back under 50 at 47.2. Post ADP and ahead of Friday, the employment component …

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May 3, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

ADP has been pretty volatile month to month

ADP said 296k private sector jobs were added in April, double the estimate and a pick up from the 142k seen in March. That’s the biggest one month job print since last July. Small and medium sized businesses drove most of the hiring. The biggest contributor and the main reason for the upside was the 154k increase in net hiring in leisure and hospitality. …

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May 3, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

“They’re not funding deals that they thought they would fund in the future”…”Close rates have declined across all loan types”

While the Fed will hike today by 25 bps (I reiterate my belief that it is a mistake), the fed funds futures are predicting as of today that there is a 50 bps chance that they take it back at the July 26th meeting and by yr end another one thereafter. And by the end of next year, 200 bps of these hikes are priced to be reversed. While Powell will likely hint at a time …

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May 2, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Further fraying

Job openings in March shrunk for a 3rd straight month to 9.59mm. That’s the least since April 2021 as the economy was then reopening. It remains well above the February 2020 level of about 7mm but that was before the whole work from home trend skyrocketed which in turn impacted the amount of job openings that could be posted for one job. So, I can’t make an apples to …

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May 2, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

‘Recession Roulette’/Travel remains the bright spot/Eurozone inflation

Well that April pause didn't last long. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised us all with a 25 bps rate hike to 3.85%. Governor Lowe said "Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7% is still too high and it will be some time yet before it is back in the target range...Given the importance of returning inflation to target within a reasonable …

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May 1, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

US manufacturing

The April ISM manufacturing index was 47.1, remaining below 50 for the 6th straight month. It compares with 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February and 47.4 in January. New orders were 45.7, under 50 for the 8th straight month. Backlogs remained firmly below 50 at 43.1. inventories fell 1.2 pts m/o/m to 46.3 and follows the Q1 drag inventories brought to Q1 GDP. Customer …

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May 1, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Powell/Digging in a bit on CRE and also multi family rental rates/Other

Since rising by $393b in the post SVB bank bond duration bailouts, the Fed's balance sheet for the week ended April 26th has now shrunk by $171b and will continue to as QT is essentially back on (though I never viewed the expansion in those weeks after SVB as QE). The Fed will rely on this tightening as they stop with the rate hikes of the fed funds after …

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April 28, 2023 By Peter Boockvar

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events: Positives, 1)Initial jobless claims fell to 230k from 246k and much lower than the estimate of 248k. The 4 week average fell to 236k from 240k. After jumping to the highest level since last November, continuing claims fell by 3k w/o/w to 1.858mm. 2)The March PCE inflation stats as well as income and spending were all …

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About Peter

Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor. Each day The Boock Report provides summaries and commentary on the macro data and news that matter, with analysis of what it all means and how it fits together.

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Disclaimer - Peter Boockvar is an independent economist and market strategist. The Boock Report is independently produced by Peter Boockvar. Peter Boockvar is also the Chief Investment Officer of Bleakley Financial Group, LLC a Registered Investment Adviser. The Boock Report and Bleakley Financial Group, LLC are separate entities. Content contained in The Boock Report newsletters should not be construed as investment advice offered by Bleakley Financial Group, LLC or Peter Boockvar. This market commentary is for informational purposes only and is not meant to constitute a recommendation of any particular investment, security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy. The views expressed in this commentary should not be taken as advice to buy, sell or hold any security. To the extent any of the content published as part of this commentary may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. No chart, graph, or other figure provided should be used to determine which securities to buy or sell. Consult your advisor about what is best for you.

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