We finally got there, a 60 print for the Bulls in the weekly Investors Intelligence index. It touched that exactly on the week up from 59.2 last week. Bears fell to 16.2 from 16.5. Bottom line, anything with a 6 handle in the Bulls is considered extreme and the spread to the bears now at 43.8 certainly is. Again, combine this with the Citi Panic/Euphoria index and we …
[Read more...] about Bulls finally at 60/Durable goods orders
On Monday I quoted the WSJ article saying that the top 10% of earners owned 87% of all the US stocks outstanding in Q1 2020. Yesterday we saw the consumer confidence index print the lowest level since 2014 at the same time the US stock market continues vertical. Here is a chart looking at them both. The uplift in confidence since 2009 assume was all due to the …
Ahead of Jay Powell's speech on Thursday, there is chatter that he will talk about a new inflation regime they are shooting for but I need to remind everyone that 'symmetry' in their inflation goals has been a part of every single FOMC statement this year. So, wanting to overshoot after a period of undershoot is current policy. I'm guessing the Fed's goal if he talks …
Ahead of the Jackson Hole virtual get together this week, I couldn't help but laugh at this tweet I found over the weekend, //twitter.com/Wertwhile/status/1297274363390066689, QE4EVER on the license plate of an Audi at the same time I'm reading the weekend WSJ where in an article titled says "When the Stock Market and the Economy Seem Disconnected" it says "The …
Positives 1)The August Markit manufacturing and services composite index rose to 54.7 from 50.3 with manufacturing rising to 53.6 from 50.9 and services at 54.8 from 50 (first time above 50 since January). With services, "greater client demand and increased marketing activity led to a renewed rise in overall new business." Export orders also improved as did …
[Read more...] about Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events – 8/21
The August Markit manufacturing and services composite index rose to 54.7 from 50.3 with manufacturing rising to 53.6 from 50.9 and services at 54.8 from 50 (first time above 50 since January). With services, "greater client demand and increased marketing activity led to a renewed rise in overall new business." Export orders also improved as did backlogs. …
[Read more...] about Mfr’g & Services/Home sales, lower rates but higher prices
Tesla as of yesterday's close has a higher market cap ($373b) than Walmart ($369b), the largest private sector employer in the country and a company with NET INCOME for the year ended July of $18 billion. Tesla had REVENUE of $25.7b in the 12 months ended June. Tesla now has a market cap only exceeded by FAAMG, JNJ ($398b), Visa ($396b) and Berkshire …
Initial jobless claims got back above 1mm, totaling 1.11mm, up from 971k last week (revised up by 8k) and higher than the estimate of 920k. Continuing claims, delayed by one week, did fall to 14.8mm from 15.5mm and vs the estimate of 15k on the dot. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance after a few weeks of declines rose to 543k from 490k but these are not seasonally …
[Read more...] about Claims/Philly mfr’g and their special question
I forgot to give color on the Cass Freight Index which came out late yesterday and where shipments in July fell by 13.1% y/o/y. This though is less negative as it fell by 17.8% y/o/y in June and to this they said "Everything in the freight world, although mostly still below year ago volume levels, seems at least to be moving in the same direction - up." They had the …
The dichotomy of the mood of the 'professional' investor when compared to the individual is still apparent. The former is in an ebullient, euphoric state. The latter remains more subdued but a bit less so on the week. The AAII said both Bulls and Bears were little changed with Bears at a still high 42.4, up a slight .3 pts while Bulls also were up a touch by .4 pts to …
Peter is the Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group and is a CNBC contributor.
