Reestablishing its downward trend, initial jobless claims fell to 364k from 415k last week. The estimate was 388k and last week was revised up from 411k. The 4 week average fell to 393k from 399k. Those filing for PUA rose by 3k. Delayed by a week, continuing claims rose to 3.47mm from 3.41mm and that was 130k more than expected. All eyes are on how quickly this falls in July as more states have eliminated the extended benefits this month (some did last month) and the rest in two months. Delayed by two weeks, those still receiving PUA fell by 15k to 5.94mm and those continuing to get the emergency kind declined by 12.1k to 5.26mm. Thus, those still getting claims of some kind past the initial filing is 14.7mm.
Bottom line, I couldn’t figure out why we saw a rise in claims in the prior two weeks in the face of all those job openings but at least the figure today resumes the downward trend and makes a lot more sense. The continuing side of the claims data remains elevated with the reasons up for debate but it should start to fall this month and then again in September. It will thus be then when we will better calibrate the supply/demand equilibrium for the labor market and thus better try to gauge the pace of wage gains. I think employees have tasted some wage leverage here and they are not going to be so quick to give it up and also, I don’t expect a major uptick in the participation rate which should further the wage gains.
4 Week Avg in Initial Claims
CONTINUING CLAIMS