The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for June rose 10 pts m/o/m to 127.3 and that was well better than the estimate of 119. And, we are getting closer to the February 2020 print of 132.6. The Present Situation rose to 157.7, higher for a 5th month and compares with 173.90 in January 2020. While the Expectations component just got back what it lost last month, it is basically back to the early 2020 pre Covid level. Consumer confidence of those under the age of 35 led the way with a 20 pt m/o/m jump. Just about all income ranges saw gains too m/o/m.
One year inflation expectations rose to 6.7% from 6.5% and that matches the highest since 2008.
Reflecting the record number of job openings, those that said jobs were Plentiful rose another 6 pts and has doubled over the past 3 months to the highest level since July 2000. Those that said jobs are Hard to Get fell to the least since September 2000. Notwithstanding this, expectations for more employment fell to a 7 month low and I can’t square that circle. Positively for employees, expectations for higher income rose to the best since March 2020.
After falling in May, spending intentions did recover some of what it lost. Intentions to take a vacation increased too but still remains well below the pre Covid levels.
Bottom line, while we don’t have ‘maximum employment’ I’ll argue that we currently have ‘maximum opportunity’ in terms of the number of jobs available. We certainly don’t have price stability with a 13 yr high in inflation expectations. While the economy is showing signs of late cycle because of all the supply challenges, it is certainly invigorating and confidence lifting to have life return to normal. Yes, Covid will likely be with us in some fashion for a while but vaccines work and we’ll thus power thru it.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
JOBS PLENTIFUL
ONE YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS